Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 072239
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
439 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2006

MOC111-072315-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-060307T2315Z/
LEWIS MO-
439 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST
FOR NORTHEASTERN LEWIS COUNTY...

AT 437 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL 
OVER MONTICELLO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
CANTON.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND HAVE 
BEEN TAKEN.

LAT...LON 4010 9152 4006 9179 4012 9180 4013 9182
      4018 9182 4023 9185 4024 9178 4025 9176
      4025 9151

$$

CVKING

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 072300
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
501 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2006

MOC111-072311-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-060307T2315Z/
LEWIS MO-
501 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LEWIS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4010 9152 4006 9179 4012 9180 4013 9182
      4018 9182 4023 9185 4024 9178 4025 9176
      4025 9151

$$

CVKING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER ALREADY SHOWING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRECURSOR TO
WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY BUSY 6 TO 7 DAYS ACROSS THE CWFA.  SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST FROM A DEEP TROF OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES.  40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET SCREAMING UP THROUGH EASTERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BRINGING 150-250% CLIMATOLOGICAL PWATS INTO THE
AREA WITH 60+ SURFACE DEWPOINTS STREAMING UP INTO OKLAHOMA.  IN
OTHER WORDS...ITS GOING TO RAIN.

ANTECEDENT DRYNESS AND LACK OF HIGHLIGHT IN HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA HAS DISCOURAGED ME FROM HEADLINING THIS
EVENT...FOR NOW.  HOWEVER MENTION OF HEAVY RAINS STILL LOOKS PRUDENT
FOR TONIGHT. THE MAIN SLUG OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS WELL OFF
TO THE WEST...SO IT APPEARS THAT OUR SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE
LIMITED TO MARGINAL HAIL FOR TONIGHT.

RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN WARM ADVECTION TOMORROW.  SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL DUE TO LACK OF SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY.  ALSO...WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT AS FAR AS
PRIMING THE PUMP GOES FOR POSSIBLE HYDROLOGIC HEADLINES AND OTHER
RELATED PRODUCTS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST BET FOR SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...HOWEVER IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW UNSTABLE
WELL GET IF THERES LIMITED SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO EJECT SHORTWAVES INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE TWO MAIN WAVES OF INTEREST ARE
MOVE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA INTO IOWA ON JUST ABOUT IDENTICAL TRACKS ON
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  THE STRONGER OF THE TWO
WAVES CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MONDAY ONE WITH BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BEING SLOWER IN FORWARD SPEED AND WITH STRONGER VORTICITY AND
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. REGARDLESS...BOTH WAVES GENERATE
SURFACE SYSTEMS WHICH WILL DRAG COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CARNEY
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS FM AROUND 1900-2400 FT EXTENDING FM SRN IL
ACRS WRN IL WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE CUMULIFORM IN NATURE AND
EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AS FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. THE LOW LVL
RDG CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AS MID AND HI CLDS ARE SPREADING EWD
FROM THE PLAINS. A MID LVL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VLY
DURING THE LATER PART OF THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHRA
AND TSRA FM CNTRL MO INTO WCNTRL IL. BY EARLY THIS EVENING THE
SWLY LOW LVL JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG FORCING FOR WDSPRD AND RATHER
CONTINUOUS SHRA AND TSRA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH
THIS ZONE SLOWLY MOVING SWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
245 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2006

ILZ095>097-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-047-048-050-081200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALLAWAY-COLE-KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-
MONITEAU-MONROE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-SHELBY-
245 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH A FAVORABLE
STORM TRACK TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS WEATHER PATTERN...BUT THE PUBLIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECAST AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY HAIL REPORTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-098>102-MOZ049-051-052-059>065-
072>075-084-085-099-081200-
BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-
GASCONADE-GREENE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-
MADISON-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-
OSAGE-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-ST. CHARLES-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-
WASHINGTON IL-
245 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...CENTRAL MISSOURI...EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH
THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH A FAVORABLE STORM
TRACK TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT THE PUBLIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECAST AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

CVKING