Severe Thunderstorm Warning 352, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 221713
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1213 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

MOC221-221730-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0352.000000T0000Z-060622T1730Z/
WASHINGTON MO-
1213 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 1208 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH OVER LATTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
OLD MINES AND RICHWOODS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3811 9111 3786 9110 3801 9062 3822 9080

$$

TRUETT

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 221730
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1230 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

MOC221-221740-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0352.000000T0000Z-060622T1730Z/
WASHINGTON MO-
1230 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM.

LAT...LON 3811 9111 3786 9110 3801 9062 3822 9080

$$

TRUETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
700 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WEVE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS TRYING TO MOVE AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS
KICKS THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY ALONG.  FRONTAL POSITION IS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN THIS MORNING SINCE THE MCS ACTIVITY OVER
KANSAS...NEBRASKA...AND IOWA IS MUDDYING THE WATERS.  HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EXTREME
NORTHWEST MISSOURI...INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND CONTINUING EAST THROUGH
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING
DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS IS CONTINUED TO BE
EXPECTED AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOVES THE FRONT IN FITS AND STARTS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  TRYING TO TIME FROPA AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION
IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE DUE TO THE FICKLE NATURE OF WHERE AND WHEN
THESE MCSS WILL FORM.

HAVE BASICALLY THROWN THE GFS IN THE TRASH DUE TO ITS CONTINUED
PROBLEMS WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  THE NEW NAM/WRF MODEL SEEMS TO
HAVE AT LEAST A DECENT HANDLE ON WHATS GOING ON OVER THE PLAINS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI AT THIS TIME...SO IVE LEANED HEAVILY ON ITS
SOLUTION.  HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO 60-70 PERCENT FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH
THE CWFA.  IM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO SAY CATEGORICALLY THAT IT
WILL RAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THAT TIME-FRAME DUE TO THE
LACK OF STRONG FORCING...BUT IT SURE SEEMS LIKELY THAT A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN.  SOME AREAS OVER CENTRAL OR
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI MAY RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND SMALL SHORTWAVE
TROF ALOFT.  BUT AGAIN...SIGNALS ARE VERY WEAK...SO HAVENT
HIGHLIGHTED ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.  MAY MENTION
IT IN THE HWO LATER...

THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP CHANCES.  THIS
FINAL PUSH SEEMS TO BE AT LEAST PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER PATTERN AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION.  THIS SHOULD PUT THE
MIDWEST BACK INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOW A CANADIAN AIRMASS
TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING OUR AREA RELATIVELY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MCS CENTERED OVR SE IA IS MOVING TO THE EAST
WITH CONVECTION AS FAR SOUTH AS CNTRL MO ON ITS SW FLANK. THE
CELLS ON THE SW FLANK ARE MOVING TO THE NE. THIS MOTION ALG WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE MCS SHOULD BRING SHRA/TSRA INTO UIN THIS MRNG.
THE INITIAL QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR ON THE SW FLANK OF THE MCS. THERE IS A RATHER PRONOUNCED
OUTFLOW BNDRY AND THE RUC SHOWS DECENT H85 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
THRU CNTRL MO...SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP THIS MRNG
IN THE COU TAF IN LIGHT OF THE POTENTIAL. THIS OUTFLOW IF IT LASTS
COULD MORE OR LESS BECOME THE EFFECTIVE FORCING MECHANISM FOR PCPN
TDA. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATING A THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA TO COME WITH THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. THE FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM BUT STILL
APPEARED TO BE DRAPPED ACRS IA INTO NRN KS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING
A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE FRONT...BUT THE GREATEST CONSENSUS
WOULD BRING THE FRONT TO AROUND I-70 BY 00Z AND THEN SLOWLY SINK
IT SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS TONIGHT. I HAVE PROB OR TEMPO GROUP TO
ACCT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WITH THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND THEN
REMOVED THE PCPN CHANCES FEELING THE BEST CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
OF THE TAF SITES.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
616 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-231200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-CLINTON IL-
COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-
JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-MADISON IL-MARION-
MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-
PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST CHARLES-
ST CLAIR IL-ST FRANCOIS-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-STE GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
616 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THIS FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI...AND THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR IN ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER CLOSELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND BE PREPARED FOR IMMEDIATE
ACTIVATION IF NECESSARY.

CARNEY