Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
430 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

CLOSD LOW HAS FORMED JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND IS
CAUSING A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP JUST N OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHLE ENERGY MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST IS CAUSING
A TROF TO SHARPEN OVER NRN CALIFORNIA AND LITTLE PIECES OF NEBULOUS
ENERGY DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES AND MOVE OUR WAY.  ITS TOUGH TO
DIFFERENTIATE EXACTLY WHEN THESE WILL COME OUT SO CAN ONLY TRY TO
DEAL WITH THE FIRST ONE ATTM.  IT APPEARS THAT ONE SUCH PIECE OVER
NEBRASKA IS ALIGNING WITH A CDFNT THAT EXTENDS FROM SFC LOW NEAR
CANADA AND CURLS SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN IOWA INTO
SW KANSAS.

THE CLOSD LOW MOVG EAST COMBINES WITH SHARPENING WAVE OVR CALIFORNIA
TO ALLOW RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO ALBERTA. THIS
WILL BE REFLECTED IN A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND IN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA.  THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHUNT THE ENERGY PIECES
COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY
SETTLE PRECIPITATION SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS WITH SOUTHERN MISSOURI
BEING IN THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION UMBRELLA.

NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE. SPC HAS THE FRONT
STALLING OUT AND HOLDING OVR NRN MO THROUGH THURSDAY. IF SO WE
SHOULD HAVE A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AGAIN TOMORROW.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE BREAKING OUT JUST NORTHEAT OF KANSAS CITY ATTM
AND CORFIDI VECTORS CURL MORE NORTHWESTERLY FURTHER EAST SO THESE
WILL PROBABLY HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE EAST AND THEN EAST SOUTHEAST
TOWARD KCOU AND KSTL THIS MRNG.  WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE
INCREASES TO POPS TO FOLLOW UP ON THIS.

TEMPS WILL COOL BY FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPS FALL
TO PLUS 2 TO PLUS 6 OVR NRN HALF OF CWA...IF CLOUDS ROLL BACK IN
IT WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST.  WL HAVE TO WATCH THAT.

PEDIGO
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IOWA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY 12Z
THURSDAY, EXPECT THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA ACROSS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AT
THIS TIME. MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-041145-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-
CLINTON IL-COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-
IRON-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-
MADISON IL-MARION-MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-
MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-
SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-
ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
636 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI TODAY AND
TONIGHT. IT TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BRINGING OCCASIONAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THEY WILL PROBABLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN REFORM WITH STRONG AND LOCALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BISTATE AREA LATER THS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT IF
SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA...CONDITIONS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND THERE COULD
BE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MORE LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE AIR WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ON A DRYLINE IN OKLAHOMA AND MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
INTO ARKANSAS AND POSSIBLY MISSOURI. GREATEST THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
THOSE RESPONSIBLE SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PEDIGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
929 AM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     HAIL             JEFFERSON CITY          38.57N 92.19W
05/03/2006  E1.00 INCH       COLE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT FROM HIGHWAY PATROL..HAIL RANGING FROM 1/2 TO 1
            INCH MAINLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF JEFFERSON CITY.

&&

JKRAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
931 AM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HAIL             OSAGE CITY              38.55N 92.03W
05/03/2006  E0.75 INCH       OSAGE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JKRAMPER