Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS St. Louis, MO

April 30, 2006Reynolds County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 30, 2006, 2:19 PM CDT for Reynolds County, Missouri. It was in force for 15 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 30, 2006, 2:19 PM CDT (19:19 UTC)
Expired: Apr 30, 2006, 2:34 PM CDT
In force: 15 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Reynolds County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 255 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 37 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -27 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 547 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 67 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 62 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KLSX 301918 RRA
SVRLSX
MOC179-302015-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0227.060430T1919Z-060430T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
219 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  REYNOLDS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 215 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.  THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF REYNOLDS...OR ABOUT 28 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF PIEDMONT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  REYNOLDS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3741 9119 3721 9114 3737 9079 3759 9077
      3760 9092

$$

CVKING

1 follow-up statement

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 301934
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
234 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

MOC179-301944-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-060430T2015Z/
REYNOLDS MO-
234 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR REYNOLDS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.

LAT...LON 3741 9119 3721 9114 3737 9079 3759 9077
      3760 9092

$$

CVKING

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 30, 6:15 AM CDT, 8 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 30, 6:15 AM CDT, 8 hours 4 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
615 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS WRN MO. AS OF 07Z...IT
WAS JUST EAST OF KC. CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MO ARE GETTING DRY
SLOTTED...WHILE WIDESPREAD RWS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY MOVE N OVER ERN MO
AND IL.

MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE PCPN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TODAY...SFC LOW TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE N...BEFORE STALLING
OVER NWRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH POSITION OF SYSTEM...FEEL THAT
CENTRAL MO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY DRY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE REST OF CWA TO EXPERIENCE OFF AND ON SHOWERS...SO
LOWERED POPS OVER CENTRAL MO. BY THIS AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH INCREASING CONVERGENT FLOW
OVER REGION AND SPEED SHEAR...SO KEPT MENTION OF TRWS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FOR EARLY MORNING WIND ADVISORY...WILL LET IT
EXPIRE AT 4 AM...AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY TONIGHT...NAM AND GFS SHOWING SFC LOW WEAKENING LIKE PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT NOW ALSO LIFT IT FURTHER NORTH...PROLONGING PCPN CHANCES
FOR CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN HALF OF CWA. DID ADJUST POPS
ACCORDINGLY...BY LOWERING TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR CENTRAL MO...BUT
KEEP LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE.

FINALLY ON MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD...
BUT THEN STALLS OUT OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PROLONGING PCPN CHANCES. SINCE THIS IS A NEW SOLUTION WITH
THE 00Z RUNS OF BOTH NAM AND GFS...WILL NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES WITH POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...UNTIL I SEE
THIS PATTERN PERSISTING IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. DID ADD SILENT 20 POPS
TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PER
COLLABORATION WITH OFFICES TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

BYRD
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LESSENING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILED
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 30, 12:27 PM CDT, 1 hour 52 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-011200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-
CLINTON IL-COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-
IRON-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-
MADISON IL-MARION-MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-
MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-
SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-
ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER BOTH DAYS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK...FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS SHOULD BE READY FOR
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

BYRD/CARNEY

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 30, 2:07 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
207 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             WENTZVILLE              38.81N 90.86W
04/30/2006  E0.75 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TRUETT

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 30, 1:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Warren	33 min
Apr 30, 2:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Lincoln, Saint Charles	26 min
Apr 30, 2:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Sainte Genevieve	43 min
Apr 30, 4:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Sainte Genevieve	29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.