Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 190318
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1019 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

MOC113-190400-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0199.000000T0000Z-060419T0400Z/
LINCOLN MO-
1019 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 1017 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL
OVER OLNEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
SILEX...DAVIS...WHITESIDE...NEW HOPE AND ELSBERRY.

LAT...LON 3913 9126 3902 9126 3897 9119 3890 9112
      3922 9072 3922 9112

$$

CVKING

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 190341
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1041 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

MOC113-190351-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0199.000000T0000Z-060419T0400Z/
LINCOLN MO-
1041 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LINCOLN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.

LAT...LON 3913 9126 3902 9126 3897 9119 3890 9112
      3922 9072 3922 9112

$$

CVKING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
651 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM ARE SIMILAR WITH THE HANDLING OF THE CLOSED LOW
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. WILL
LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS OVERALL AS IT HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE
OTHER MODELS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL AFFECT THE SRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS THAT PAST FEW DAYS...THE WRN
TROUGH CLOSED OFF WITH THE 500MB LOW NOW NEAR THE NE/WY BORDER.
THIS MODEL WILL INTIALLY INTENSIFY THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GRADUALLY
MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND.  19Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS
THE SFC LOW AROUND KMCI WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ROUGHLY
ALG A KDMO-KVIH-KFAM LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE GETTING READY
TO ENTER WRN MO.  LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT MLCAPES ARE
CLOSE TO 3,000 J/KG OVR WRN...WITH AN NARROW AXIS OF 1,500-2,500
J/KG EXTENDING ALONG THE WARM FRONT TOWARD KFAM.  THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC BETWEEN
850-650MB.  SOME CU LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SFC LOW AND
LATEST THINKING IS THAT TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG THE
WARM FRONT FROM THE SFC LOW INTO CNTRL MO BETWEEN 22-00Z...AND ALONG
THE CDFNT S OF THE LOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER...WHEN DECENT LARGE SCALE
LIFT ENTERS MO AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
AND BEGINS TO ERODE THE CAPE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS
WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND VERY LARGE IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LARGE CAPE VALUES. DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE LCLS WILL
BE A BIT HIGHER. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BACKED.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE STORMS
MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABLIZES.  HAVE
KEPT SOME CHC FOR TSRA OVER ERN PARTS OF THE CWA EARLY TOMORROW.
EXPECT SOME DRY TIME INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS
IDEA OF BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE SRN AND ERN PART OF THE
CWA ON FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND
HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND.

IN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME (SAT-TUE)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL
SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN A LARGE LONG WAVE
RIDGE BY SATURDAY...BUT SHOW A GREAT DISPARITY IN THE DETAILS AFTER
THAT.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF IS
PREFERRED. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ECWMF IS SLOWER TO MOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THAT GFS. GFS WOULD TRY TO PASS A SECONDARY FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL KEEP WITH THE ECMWF
IDEA OF CONTINUING THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT DOES NOT
SHOW THIS FRONT. THE ECMWF SHOWS A 2ND CLOSED LOW WORKING SEWD OUT
OF CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FIRST ONE OPENS UP AND MOVES
NEWD. THE 00Z GFS RUN SHOWED A SIMILAR WEAKER OPEN TROUGH...
THOUGH THE NEW 12Z GFS DOES HAVE A CLOSED LOW...BUT IT STRONGER
AND FASTER WHICH DOESNT MATCH THE IDEA OF A SLOWER PATTERN. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE COOLER AIR WILL WORK SWD OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WITH
COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE SOLUTIONS AND QUESTIONABLE RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. USED A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE...
HPC GUIDANCE AND THE MEAN ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONCURRENTLY THE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTHWARD AND EXTENDS FROM
THE SFC LOW THRU SW MO INTO EXTREME SRN IL. WARM MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR IS QUICKLY RETURNING NWD WITH THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY IN WCNTRL MO IN ADVANCE OF
THE SFC LOW/FRONT TRIPLE PT AS THE CAP WEAKENS WITH WK LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND TRACK
ESEWD EXPANDING IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING HRS. GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
FRONT. TEMPO GROUPS IN AREA TAFS REFLECT BEST PERIOD FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE SFC LOW/CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. THESE WILL LINGER OVER ERN MO/WRN
IL DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD
MOVE EWD AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
331 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-191100-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-CLINTON IL-
COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-
JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-MADISON IL-MARION-
MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-
PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST CHARLES-
ST CLAIR IL-ST FRANCOIS-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-STE GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
331 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDER WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LATEST THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI BETWEEN 500 PM AND 700 PM. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS
THEY MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST...MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY BUT THESE
STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO CLUSTERS AND A THEN A SQUALL LINE AS
THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL UP TO 3 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
DRIFTS FROM THE NORTHEAST PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND HAM RADIO OPERATORS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION THIS EVENING.

GLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
845 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             CALIFORNIA              38.63N 92.57W
04/18/2006  E0.88 INCH       MONITEAU           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0837 PM     HAIL             JAMESTOWN               38.77N 92.48W
04/18/2006  E1.00 INCH       MONITEAU           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0838 PM     HAIL             4 N CALIFORNIA          38.69N 92.57W
04/18/2006  E1.75 INCH       MONITEAU           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MBRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
858 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     HAIL             2 NE WILTON             38.76N 92.33W
04/18/2006  E0.75 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL FROM 847-852 PM.

&&

MBRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
910 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             1 S ASHLAND             38.76N 92.26W
04/18/2006  E1.50 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0856 PM     HAIL             2 W ASHLAND             38.77N 92.29W
04/18/2006  E1.75 INCH       BOONE              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

0856 PM     HAIL             8 SSW ASHLAND           38.67N 92.31W
04/18/2006  E1.00 INCH       BOONE              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

0900 PM     HAIL             6 E HARTSBURG           38.70N 92.20W
04/18/2006  E1.00 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MBRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
916 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 PM     HAIL             3 SSW BRAZITO           38.41N 92.30W
04/18/2006  E1.75 INCH       COLE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MBRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
925 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             NEW BLOOMFIELD          38.72N 92.09W
04/18/2006  E2.00 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS GOLFBALL TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL NEAR
            HIGHWAY J AND HIGHWAY 57 AROUND 910 PM.

&&

MBRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
954 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     HAIL             4 WSW FULTON            38.83N 92.02W
04/18/2006  E0.75 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL ALONG ROUTE H.

0925 PM     HAIL             FULTON                  38.85N 91.95W
04/18/2006  E1.00 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 PM     HAIL             5 WSW WESTPHALIA        38.41N 92.09W
04/18/2006  E0.75 INCH       OSAGE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0930 PM     HAIL             10 N MEXICO             39.31N 91.87W
04/18/2006  E0.75 INCH       AUDRAIN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MBRITT