Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 162007
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
207 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

MOC073-162017-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-060216T2030Z/
GASCONADE MO-
207 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GASCONADE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3868 9138 3832 9136 3833 9089 3887 9099
      3884 9137 3873 9136

$$

MOC071-219-162030-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-060216T2030Z/
FRANKLIN MO-WARREN MO-
207 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CST
FOR WARREN AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 204 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH OVER NEW HAVEN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
MARTHASVILLE...DUTZOW...TRUESDALE AND WRIGHT CITY.

TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. REMEMBER...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING.

LAT...LON 3868 9138 3832 9136 3833 9089 3887 9099
      3884 9137 3873 9136

$$

GLASS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
605 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
QUASI STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTDS FM SWRN MO NE THRU COU TO
JUST N OF STL.  MOST OF THE SHRA AND TSRA ARE NE OF STL ATTM NR NOSE
OF 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ.  BOTH NAM AND GFS DVLP A SFC WV ALNG FNT JUST
N OF STL BY 18Z THU WITH THE ERN PTN OF THE FNT LFTG NWD THIS MRNG.
APRS THAT MOST OF THE PCPN WILL BE N OF THE FNT THIS MRNG WITH
INCRSG WAA ABV FNT AS NEW LLJ CORE DVLPS OVR SWRN MO AHD OF 850 MB
LOW AND TRANSLATES NEWD INTO E CNTRL MO BY 18Z THU.  SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION DVLPG ALNG TRAILING CDFNT THIS AFTN AS IT SURGES SEWD
THRU THE CWA AS A STG SHRTWV MOVS NEWD INTO NWRN MO BY 00Z FRI.
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SVR STORMS MAINLY OVR THE SERN PTN OF THE CWA
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVNG ALNG STG CDFNT WITH THE NAM MDL
SHOWING SFC LI VALUES DOWN TO AS LOW AS -2 AHD OF THE CDFNT WITH STG
SHEAR AND VRY FAST MOVG STORMS.  MAY NEED TO MENTION FZRA IN THE
EXTRM NWRN PTN OF THE CWA THIS MRNG AS THE SFC TEMPERATURE HAS
DROPPED TO 28-30 DGRS F IN THIS REGION.  MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR THE 3-4 NWRN MOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA TDA.
PCPN IN THE NWRN PTN OF THE CWA SHOULD CHANGE OVR TO SNOW THIS
AFTN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE A RAPID
DROP IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG WITH FROPA WITH STG
NWLY WNDS JUST BHND FNT. NAM MDL SHOWS VRY STG 850 MB CAA FM 00Z
TO 06Z FRI BHND THE 850 MB TROF WITH PRONOUNCED DRYING OF THE 850
MB DWPTS. PCPN SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT OVR THE ENTR CWA AS STG
ARCTIC HI BUILDS SEWD INTO THE CWA. MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
BHND THE CDFNT LT THIS AFTN AND THIS EVNG BFR THE PCPN SHUTS OFF
BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION...POSSIBLY A
DUSTING. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU NGT THRU THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MDL SHOWING SOME QPF OVR THE SRN PTN OF THE CWA FRI
NGT WITH ISENTROPIC LFT...850-700 MB WAA OVR ARCTIC AIRMASS. WILL
CONT AT LEAST LOW POPS OVR THE SRN PTN OF THE CWA FOR FRI NGT.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH LOTS OF THINGS TO
CONSIDER. FIRST AND FOREMOST IS THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
BISECTING THE AREA FROM NEAR KVIH TO KTAZ. CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
FRONT ARE SQUARELY LIFR-IFR RANGE...WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
LIFR AT KSUS DUE TO FOG TO VFR AT KSTL. SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT
NEAR KJLN SHOULD MIGRATE NORTHEAST. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD. AREAS WHICH REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT (MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A KCOU TO KPPQ LINE) SHOULD STAY PRETTY LOW TODAY...MAYBE
JUST EDGING OUT OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
ARE HOVERING AT OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...SO THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SOME FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP NORTH OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNIGN. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN/COME UP TO HIGH
MVFR/LOW VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON ON OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50KTS...BUT THAT THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1253 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-098>102-MOZ049-051-052-059>065-
072>075-084-085-099-171900-
BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-
GASCONADE-GREENE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-
MADISON-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-
OSAGE-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-ST. CHARLES-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-
WASHINGTON IL-
1253 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...CENTRAL MISSOURI...EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI..SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS..HAIL AND EVEN A POSSIBLE TORNADO. A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVITATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

ILZ097-MOZ035-036-041-042-047-048-050-171900-
AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-MONITEAU-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-
1253 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY
DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.DO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGE TO REPORT SNOWFALL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

ILZ095-096-MOZ018-019-026-027-034-171900-
ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-MONROE-SHELBY-
1253 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGE TO REPORTS SNOWFALL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

RP