Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS73 KLSX 271938
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
227 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

MOC179-280030-
REYNOLDS MO-
227 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR
REYNOLDS COUNTY...

AT 221 PM CDT...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE LOCATED WEST OF CENTERVILLE
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DUMPED LOCALLY OVER THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.  THESE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST TO BETWEEN
CENTERVILLE AND LESTERVILLE AT 230 PM.  

NORTHERN REYNOLDS COUNTY SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN
NOW AND 400 PM. HOWEVER...NEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN SOUTHEASTERN
SHANNON COUNTY NEAR WINONA AND NORTHEAST OF EMINENCE. THESE STORMS 
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST REYNOLDS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD
TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WHERE LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR. 

THESE STORMS SHOULD DUMP UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST.

MORE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE THE 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 730 PM THIS EVENING.

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS DROVE FROM CENTERVILLE TO SUTTON
BLUFF RECREATIONAL AREA AND REPORT THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE SWOLLEN
ALL CREEKS BUT NO FLOODING HAS BEEN NOTED AS YET.  

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY 
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN ST 
LOUIS.

LAT...LON 3718 9111 3707 9095 3706 9076 3759 9077
      3759 9114

$$

PEDIGO

000 
WGUS73 KLSX 272157
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
447 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

MOC179-280030-
REYNOLDS MO-
447 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR
REYNOLDS COUNTY...

AT 445 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING NORTH AND WOULD 
PRODUCE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...WEST FORK...REYNOLDS AND 
CENTERVILLE...SUTTON BLUFF RECREATION AREA...AND OATES.

SOME CREEKS AND RIVERS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...WEST FORK OF 
THE BLACK RIVER...LOGAN CREEK...BRUSHY CREEK...GUNNIS CREEK...AND 
COOKS SPRING.

SEEK HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY IF YOU ARE IN A LOW LYING AREA...OR 
FLOOD PRONED LOCATION

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE 
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS 
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF 
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 3718 9111 3707 9095 3706 9076 3759 9077
      3759 9114

$$

CVKING

000 
WGUS73 KLSX 280034
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
734 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

MOC179-280044-
REYNOLDS MO-
734 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR REYNOLDS COUNTY...

THE STORMS WHICH PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAINS EARLIER HAVE WEAKENED AND 
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LAT...LON 3718 9111 3707 9095 3706 9076 3759 9077
      3759 9114

$$

CVKING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
110PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MOVG NEWD THRU SWRN MO AND W CNTRL MO SHOULD
IMPACT CNTRL MO EARLY THIS MRNG.  ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST HOUR CONVECTION SHOULD CONT TO DVLP AHD OF
RELATIVELY WK SHRTWV MOVG E-NEWD THRU NERN KS.  CONVECTION SHOULD
ALSO DVLP OVR S CNTRL AND SERN MO AS LATEST RUC ANLYS HAS STG 850
MOISTURE CNVG AND THETA E ADVCTN AT 06Z ACRS THIS AREA. WILL GO
WITH HIGH POPS OVR AT LEAST THE WRN PTN OF THE CWA THIS MRNG. AT
LEAST SCT CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP THIS AFTN ALNG OUTFLOW
BNDRYS AND ALNG WK E-W SYNOPTIC STATIONARY FNT ACRS CNTRL MO. NAM
MDL SHOWS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY S OF THIS BNDRY WITH SFC LI VALUES
OF -6 FCST AT 18Z SUN OVR SRN MO. WILL FCST MAX TEMPERATURES TDA
SLIGHTLY BLW PRESISTANCE WITH CLOUD CVR AND CONVECTION EXPECTED
PLUS POSITION OF SYNOPTIC FNT WILL BE A LTL FURTHER S THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY. FOR LATE TGT AND MON MRNG IT APRS THAT THE BEST THREAT
FOR CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. NAM MDL
DEPICTS INCRSG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVR NERN MO TGT AS MID LVL LOW
MOVS SLOWLY EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. IT IS ALSO SHOWING INCRSG LOW
LVL WAA...MOISTURE CNVG AND THETA E ADVCTN IN THIS AREA NR NOSE OF
S-SWLY LLJ AHD OF WK 850 MB LOW OVR NERN KS. NAM MDL HAS K
INDICES OF NR 40 BY 12Z MON OVR NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL. NAM MDL
MAY BE CORRECT IN LFTG FNT BACK NWD WITH APPROACHING MID-UPR LVL
TROF MOVG INTO THE NRN PLAINS ALTHOUGH ITS POSITION MAY BE A LTL
TOO FAR N BY MON MRNG. BEST POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION SHOULD BGN
SHIFTING SLOWLY SEWD WITH TIME BGNG MON AFTN AS FNT BGNS PUSHING
SLOWLY SEWD AS SFC RDG BLDS ACRS THE NRN PLAINS. MAX TEMPERATURES
ON MON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MDLS FCSTG A MORE WIDESPREAD
AND PERSISTANT CLOUD CVR WITH A DPR MOISTURE PROFILE ON THE TIME
SECTIONS OF RH...PLUS MOS GUIDANCE HAS A LWR LVL CLOUD CEILING
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. WILL HAVE BEST POPS ON MON
NGT OVR THE SERN PTN OF THE CWA WITH SFC WV ALNG FNT PUSHING SE OF
THE CWA. ALTHOUGH LOW LVL FRCG NO LONGER PRESENT ON TUE TO
INITIATE CONVECTION AND THE MORE ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE SHUNTED
E OF THE AREA...WK SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND MID LVL LOW OVR THE NRN
PLAINS ALNG WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL TEMPS MAY GENERATE AT
LEAST SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION...AND WILL LIKELY INCLUDE LOW POPS
OVR THE CWA ON TUE.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...PRECIPITATION TRENDS HAVE BEEN BACK PEDDLED
FOR THE TAF SITES. PRECIPITITION IS BECOMING ORGANIZED IN THE
MOST UNSTABLE AIR IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND FURTHER NORTH THINGS
ARE PRETTY QUIET.  HAVE KEPT A CLOSE EYE NORTHWEST HOWEVER. THE
MSAS DATA INDICATES THE STATIONARY FRONT IS TRYING TO RELOCATE
FURTHER NORTH WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI.

IN THE LONGER RANGE THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH BEHIND
THIS EVENINGS CONVECTIVE EVENT AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SET IN
WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
TAF AREA. EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
AS WELL.

PEDIGO

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
548 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-281100-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-
CLINTON IL-COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-
IRON-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-
MADISON IL-MARION-MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-
MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-
SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-
ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
548 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THESE
STORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLOODING OR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1153 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1141 AM     HAIL             FARMINGTON              37.78N 90.43W
08/27/2006  E0.75 INCH       ST. FRANCOIS       MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TILLY