Wind Advisory 61, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
735 PM PST FRI DEC 1 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING
OVER THE DISTRICT. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE
VTU/L.A. MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE WITH LOCAL GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. AS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT INCREASES OVERNIGHT WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN THESE AREAS...AND A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM MIDNIGHT THRU 4 PM
SAT. THE OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD SURFACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE VTU/L.A.
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
GOOD NORTHERLY GRADIENTS WERE ALSO NOTED ALONG THE SBA S COAST AND
MOUNTAINS WITH LOCAL GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH OCCURRING ESPECIALLY
AROUND MONTECITO HILLS. THESE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED AS
GRADIENTS SLACKEN THERE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE DISTRICT THRU THE NIGHT. PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN WIND SHELTERED VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG AND OFF THE CA COAST SAT THRU SUN
THEN WEAKEN SOME FOR MON. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SAT THEN PUSH E SAT NIGHT AND SUN. STRONGLY
BUILDING SURFACE HI PRESSURE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE GREAT BASIN IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING A 1053 MB HI
OVER WESTERN WYOMING LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SRN CA SAT THRU SUN. GOOD THERMAL
SUPPORT FOR STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. IT LOOKS
LIKE VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONTINUE INTO SUN
AFTERNOON OVER THE L.A./VTU MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA
RANGE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH LOOKS HIGHLY PROBABLE AT THIS
TIME...AND AS A RESULT THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA FROM 4 PM
SAT THRU SUN AFTERNOON WILL BE UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
SHORTLY. PLEASE SEE THE PRODUCT LAXNPWLOX FOR DETAILS. IN
ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. THE SUPPORT
FOR STRONG WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE SUN THRU MON...BUT LOCAL GUSTY NE
CANYON WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
PERIOD OVER THE DISTRICT. HI TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS SAT AND SUN THEN
COOL SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MON. THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY WILL HAVE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE
PERIOD.

WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE
DISTRICT THRU SUN...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DURING
THE PERIOD FOR THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES.
PLEASE SEE LAXRFWLOX FOR DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH BY
MIDWEEK AND MARINE LAYER SHOULD SLOWLY MARCH BACK INTO THE COASTAL
SECTIONS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
12Z GFS CONTINUES TO HINT AT A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR
FRIDAY. IF THE GFS SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY...IT COULD BRING
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AND CERTAINLY
A CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL JUST INTRODUCE SOME
20-30 PERCENT POPS IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SAT. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SAT.
LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN AT KBUR AND KVNY TONIGHT INTO
SAT AS WELL.

KLAX WILL EXPERIENCE NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP AFTER 09Z OR 10Z.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN HOUR OR TWO BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z OF
NORTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING 10 KT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...SIRARD/GOMBERG
AVIATION...SIRARD/KITTELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PST FRI DEC 1 2006

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-021400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
600 AM PST FRI DEC 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IS PRODUCING HARD FREEZES OVER SOME OF THE
INLAND VALLEYS AND AREAS OF FROST NEAR THE CENTRAL COASTS THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ARE RANGING FROM THE
TEENS TO THE MID 20S AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS RANGE COULD CREATE A
SURVIVAL HAZARD FOR PEOPLE IN THE OUTDOORS. IN ADDITION...THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO CRASH OVER THE
MANY LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHERE FUEL MOISTURES ARE
LOW...THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE SEVERE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY.

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FREEZE WARNING.............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FROST ADVISORY.............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY MONDAY
AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE COMING
DAYS. SEVERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY EXTEND INTO MONDAY.

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

HALL