Wind Advisory 44, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
140 PM PDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...INTERESTING DAY IN TERMS OF WIND
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREAS. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG EDDY CIRCULATION
ALONG THE COAST IS CREATING SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE
BIGHT. MEANWHILE, NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING FARTHER AND
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR AND ARRIVED IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY AROUND NOON. THIS DESPITE ONSHORE GRADIENTS STILL IN
EXCESS OF 3 MB. NOT TOO MUCH WIND IN THE MTNS YET BUT WE EXPECT THIS
TO CHANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS IN TACT. WEVE DELAYED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS THE
ONSET OF NORTHEAST WINDS, AND WEVE SCALED BACK A NOTCH ON THE WIND
SPEEDS FOR THE VALLEYS. AS A RESULT, WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WELL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE MTNS STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT, AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE VALLEYS STARTING AT 5 AM.

THE MAIN CONCERN NOW IS THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE EDDY CIRCULATION AT
LOW LVLS MAY DELAY OR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE NORTHEAST WINDS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS WOULD ALSO HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. NOT A LOT OF WIGGLE ROOM HERE THOUGH. AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS EITHER IT WILL BE WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID
90S OR THE WINDS WONT MATERIALIZE AND THE TEMPS WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER. STRANGELY ENOUGH, THE MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOW THE
OFFSHORE WINDS, BUT AT THE SAME TIME KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE
THIS IS A HIGHLY UNLIKELY SCENARIO. WERE STICKING TO THE WARM AND
WINDY FORECAST FOR NOW, THOUGH AS WE SAID IT MAY TAKE A FEW EXTRA
HOURS TO DEVELOP.

CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR, AS EXPECTED, TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE THE CLEARING
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS
GONE BY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LA COUNTY
WHERE IT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST FOR THE OFFSHORE FLOW TO ARRIVE.

OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS SUNDAY, BUT PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO DROP THE
WINDS BELOW ADVISORY/WARNING LEVELS. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP SUNDAY,
PROBABLY EVEN WARMER THAN SAT AS WE GET OFF TO A WARMER START.

OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKER YET ON MONDAY, THOUGH I EXPECT SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR. COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE COAST BUT EITHER LITTLE CHANGE
OR SLIGHTLY WARMER INLAND.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BRING BACK THE
MARINE LYR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY S OF PT CONCEPTION ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE REST
OF THE WEEK, WITH THE GFS NOW SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE
WINDS FOR NEXT FRIDAY. WILL BOOST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT NOT DIVE FULLY INTO THE OFFSHORE PATTERN JUST
YET.

&&

.AVIATION...COMPETING FORCES ARE VYING FOR CONTROL OF THE AIRSPACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE COASTAL AND VALLEY SECTIONS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SUPPORTED BY A RATHER VIGOROUS EDDY
CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO CURTAIL THE COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE TO PORTIONS OF COASTAL LOS ANGELES
COUNTY BY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
SECTIONS...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL COAST...MAY BE CLOUD FREE OVERNIGHT
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...SWEET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
207 PM PDT FRI SEP 22 2006

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-231300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
207 PM PDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

DANGEROUS SANTA ANA WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY LATER TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DANGEROUS SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY SATURDAY THOUGH SUNDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
ADDITIONALLY CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SANTA BARBAR AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FIRE WEATHER WATCH.........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WOFFORD