Freeze Warning 2, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY
OFFSHORE FLOW AND GUSTY WINDS. WELL ADVERTISED EVENT APPEARS TO BE
SHAPING UP AS NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE ALREADY SURFACED IN SAUGUS AND
SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, AND HUMIDITIES ARE STARTING TO TAKE A
TUMBLE IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS, A GOOD SIGN THAT OFFSHORE FLOW IS
ON ITS WAY. ALL THIS IS LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THIS EVENT
WILL HAPPEN AS EXPECTED. WILL UPGRADE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ITS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE
ONE NOW, A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE VENTURA
COUNTY COASTAL ZONE EITHER LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS MAY ALSO NEED TO INCLUDE THE LA COUNTY COASTAL ZONE FROM MALIBU
TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AS THAT AREA IS ALSO SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE DURING OFFSHORE
FLOW EVENTS. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE
IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AN EXTENSION TO THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE CONSIDERED.

LOW CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION. WITH OFFSHORE GRADIENTS APPROACHING 5 MB BY THU MORNING
ITS HARD TO SEE THESE CLOUDS LINGERING MUCH BEYOND THE EVENING
HOURS.

BIG WARMUP ON TAP FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS NEXT FEW DAYS. LOOK FOR HIGHS
TO PRIMARILY BE IN THE 80S, WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY.
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE MTNS AND DESERTS CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

BY SAT AFTERNOON GRADIENTS WILL START TRENDING ONSHORE, POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME COOLING TO THE COASTAL ZONES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...PRETTY MUCH A COMPLETE REVERSAL IN TRENDS FOR
THE LONG TERM AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS PASS TO OUR NORTH. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN AND LIKELY THE MARINE LYR CLOUDS AS WELL, AT LEAST
TO THE COAST. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO DROP 10-20 DEGREES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND MONDAY, WITH LITTLE CHANGE INTO NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MARINE LAYER NEAR 015 THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS CLEARING OUT AS OF
18Z. CLEARING SHOULD BE BETTER TODAY THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY...SO
ANTICIPATING ALL AIRFIELDS TO BE VFR AFTER 20Z.

FLOW WILL BE TURNING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP STRATUS
OFF THE COAST. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF FOG NEAR KSMX OR A
FINGER OF STRATUS REACHING A COASTAL SITE...BUT OVERALL STRATUS WILL
BE PATCHY AT BEST. EASTERLY WINDS COULD BE QUITE STRONG AT SOME
AIRFIELDS...WITH GUSTS OVER 15KT AFTER 12Z AT KOXR KVNY AND KBUR
EXPECTED. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN AT AIRFIELDS JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF POSSIBLY REACHING AIRFIELDS NEAR
THE COAST.

KLAX WILL BE MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 21Z WITH MIST. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO ERODE AND A LATE AFTERNOON RETURN OF THE STRATUS LIKE YESTERDAY
IS NOT EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU. TYPICAL
WESTERLY SEABREEZE OVER 10KT AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...LIKELY GOING OVER 10KT AFTER 12Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...KITTELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
216 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-261300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
216 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

SANTA ANA WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INCREASE INTO THE
DAYBREAK HOURS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS A
RESULT...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH AND BELOW THE CANYONS
AND PASSES OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL MAKE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WOFFORD