Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
538 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...

STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR AN EVENING OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH SHORT
WAVE EJECTING FROM BROAD WESTERN TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF
ACTIVITY WHEN DEVELOPMENT GETS GOING IN EARNEST. AMPLE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE SET IN PLACE AND SHOULD ONLY REQUIRE THE INTERACTION
OF THE WAVE. SURFACE HEATING APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
EQUATION TODAY WITH CI BLOWOFF FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS IN MO
SHIELDING MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS FORM THERMAL DESTABILIZATION.
AS PER SPC DISCUSSIONS MAIN THREAT FOR MOST OF AREA NOW APPEARS TO
BE LARGE HAIL. SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP, FIRST RAIN THEN RAIN/SNOW
MIX BY LATE MONDAY, TO ACCOMPANY SYSTEM AS IT DEPARTS MONDAY.

TONIGHTS WAVES IS LAST IN A SERIES THAT HAS BROUGHT PRECIP TO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ENTIRE WESTERN TROUGH
PROGRESSES EAST AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US LEAVING WEST
NORTHWESTLY H5 FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RIDGING
BETWEEN DEPARRING EAST COAST TROUGH AND NEXT TROUGH ADVANCING ON
WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP MID PART OF NEXT WEEK DRY. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT ON EJECTING A WAVE FROM WESTERN TROUGH THAT WOULD IMPACT
THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. H8 TEMPS SUGGEST RAIN IN THE SOUTH, A
MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW IN THE NORTH INITIALLY. THOUGH TEMPS FALL WITH
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, PRECIP
SHOULD BE ENDED. CHANGE TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPS BY LATE IN THE WEEK
WELL BELOW NORMAL -- MINS IN TH TEENS AND MAXS ONLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS...FIRST AREA OF TS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. MAY BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FROM
01Z-03Z BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND TS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. RATHER
THAN TRY TO TIME THIS POSSIBLE LULL...AND WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE...HAVE KEPT TS IN THRU 06Z. EXPECT LOW MVFR CIGS THRU THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY IFR WITH RAIN/TS. WINDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...GENERALLY NE OR EAST AND GUSTY AT TIMES...THEN A
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH.

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVERNIGHT THRU TUESDAY MORNING.
      GALE WARNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT OPEN WATERS.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
449 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             TONICA                  41.21N 89.07W
03/12/2006  M1.00 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            I39 SOUTH OF RT 46 LARGE HAIL COVERING GROUND

0432 PM     HAIL             LEONORE                 41.19N 88.98W
03/12/2006  M1.00 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LEONORE/LOSTANT AREA

0425 PM     HAIL             1 SW LOSTANT            41.13N 89.07W
03/12/2006  M1.25 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HALBACH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
512 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             1 N MAZON               41.25N 88.42W
03/12/2006  M0.88 INCH       GRUNDY             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RT 47

&&

HALBACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
517 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             3 W COAL CITY           41.29N 88.34W
03/12/2006  M1.00 INCH       GRUNDY             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IL-113 AND GORMAN RD

&&

HALBACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
522 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             OTTAWA                  41.35N 88.84W
03/12/2006  M1.00 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            E 26TH AND 19TH RD

&&

HALBACH

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