Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
310 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...

STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR AN EVENING OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH SHORT
WAVE EJECTING FROM BROAD WESTERN TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF
ACTIVITY WHEN DEVELOPMENT GETS GOING IN EARNEST. AMPLE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE SET IN PLACE AND SHOULD ONLY REQUIRE THE INTERACTION
OF THE WAVE. SURFACE HEATING APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
EQUATION TODAY WITH CI BLOWOFF FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS IN MO
SHIELDING MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS FORM THERMAL DESTABILIZATION.
AS PER SPC DISCUSSIONS MAIN THREAT FOR MOST OF AREA NOW APPEARS TO
BE LARGE HAIL. SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP, FIRST RAIN THEN RAIN/SNOW
MIX BY LATE MONDAY, TO ACCOMPANY SYSTEM AS IT DEPARTS MONDAY.

TONIGHTS WAVES IS LAST IN A SERIES THAT HAS BROUGHT PRECIP TO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ENTIRE WESTERN TROUGH
PROGRESSES EAST AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US LEAVING WEST
NORTHWESTLY H5 FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RIDGING
BETWEEN DEPARRING EAST COAST TROUGH AND NEXT TROUGH ADVANCING ON
WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP MID PART OF NEXT WEEK DRY. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT ON EJECTING A WAVE FROM WESTERN TROUGH THAT WOULD IMPACT
THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. H8 TEMPS SUGGEST RAIN IN THE SOUTH, A
MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW IN THE NORTH INITIALLY. THOUGH TEMPS FALL WITH
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, PRECIP
SHOULD BE ENDED. CHANGE TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPS BY LATE IN THE WEEK
WELL BELOW NORMAL -- MINS IN TH TEENS AND MAXS ONLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS...AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO
AND SE IA LIFTING NE. EXPECT SOME THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND
WESTERN IL. INCLUDED VCSH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HRS THEN KEPT
SIMILAR TIMING FOR SHOWERS AND TS THIS EVENING. TIMING OF TS IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND IT MAY ARRIVE SOONER THAN 02Z
SO THIS TIMING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. AFTER TS MOVE THROUGH
DURING BY LATE EVENING...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN TO
LINGER OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER BEFORE SUNRISE. CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER
AS PRECIP CONTINUES WITH IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS/TS.
ENE WINDS 10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY TURN EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THEN ESE THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING SSW AND INCREASING
OVERNIGHT. APPROACHING SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP BY MONDAY
MORNING. DON/T WANT TO GO TO HIGH THIS FAR OUT BUT GUSTS TO 30KTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
350 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>022-023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-
019-131030-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DU PAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
350 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS EVENING...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE GREATEST THREAT
EXISTS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY DIXON IN LEE COUNTY TO
SANDWICH IN SOUTHEAST DEKALB COUNTY TO FAIRBURY IN SOUTHERN
LIVINGSTON COUNTY. A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS TO
THE NORTH OF THIS AREA AND INCLUDES MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...ALL OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA.

A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES. WHILE THE THREAT
WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE
THREAT WILL MOVE NORTH DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

PERSONS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION READY SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER APPROACH
LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR ACTIVATION THIS EVENING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

LMZ740>745-766-131030-
WINTHROP HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN-
LAKE MICHIGAN-
350 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...  TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT HELPING WAVES BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
449 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             TONICA                  41.21N 89.07W
03/12/2006  M1.00 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            I39 SOUTH OF RT 46 LARGE HAIL COVERING GROUND

0432 PM     HAIL             LEONORE                 41.19N 88.98W
03/12/2006  M1.00 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LEONORE/LOSTANT AREA

0425 PM     HAIL             1 SW LOSTANT            41.13N 89.07W
03/12/2006  M1.25 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HALBACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
505 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             GRAND RIDGE             41.24N 88.83W
03/12/2006  M0.50 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING ROAD

0456 PM     HAIL             5 NW KINSMAN            41.24N 88.64W
03/12/2006  M1.00 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0453 PM     HAIL             N RANSOM                41.16N 88.66W
03/12/2006  M1.75 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            N19TH AND EAST 30TH RD IN EASTERN LASALLE COUNTY

&&

HALBACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
512 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             1 N MAZON               41.25N 88.42W
03/12/2006  M0.88 INCH       GRUNDY             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RT 47

&&

HALBACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
517 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             3 W COAL CITY           41.29N 88.34W
03/12/2006  M1.00 INCH       GRUNDY             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IL-113 AND GORMAN RD

&&

HALBACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
522 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             OTTAWA                  41.35N 88.84W
03/12/2006  M1.00 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            E 26TH AND 19TH RD

&&

HALBACH