Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
335 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON GRIDS/ZFP...
335 PM CDT

MAIN FOCUS HAS BEEN PLACED ON NR TERM OF FCST DUE TO ANTICIPATED
CONVECTIVE DVLPMT.  LASTEST VIS SATLT LOOPS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE CONTG
TO ADVECT RPDLY NWD AHD OF SHRT WAVE TROF AND ASSD JET MAX NOW
RUNNING FROM ERN IA-NERN MO AND ON INTO XTRM NWRN AR.  THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO ACT ON INCRSGLY UNSTABLE AIR E OF MS RVR AND TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STG TO SVR TSTM DVLPMT RMNDR OF THIS AFTN.  THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO BE MOVG INTO STGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALG/JUST AHD OF
WARM FRONT RUNNING ACRS NRN IL/NWRN IND...ALG/S OF I-80.  THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE STMS THAT DO DVLP TO QUICKLY DVLP ROTATION AND
THIS ASPECT OF DVLPMT HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED WITH A FEW UPDRAFTS
THAT HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO POP UP OVR NRN LASALLE CO.

LTL CHG TO RMNDR FCST.

MERZLOCK
&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION REGARDING 12Z TAFS...
115 PM CDT

INITIAL MVFR CIGS UNDER STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS
AFTN WITH OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING THE MISS RIVER AND WARM FRONT
STILL INVOF PADUCAH. COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP
TIMING. EXPECT GRADUAL RISE IN CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTN AS TEMPS WARM
AND DRY SLOT NEARS. DELAYED TSRA TEMPO GROUP UNTIL AFT 00Z AS
INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IN OUR LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF GREATER SYNOPTIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER MO/IA AND APPROACHING
BOUNDARIES FROM THE SW. MAINTAINED VCTS AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA
THROUGH 09Z BUT REDUCED THAT TO SHRA AFT THAT TIME SINCE BEST LIFT
SHOULD BE PASSED BY THAT TIME. NEXT POTENTIALLY MORE VIGOROUS SFC
WAVE ARRIVING AROUND 18Z SAT. DEEP MOISTURE ON ITS WAY NOW WILL BE
IN PLACE OVR THE LOCAL TERMINALS BY MORNING...CAUSING RA TO LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING.

SE WINDS BECOMING LESS GUSTY OVR THE LAST FEW HRS...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THEY TURN SW. DIRECTION
VEERS SE AGAIN AS SFC WAVE DEVELOPS TO OUR SW.

RRH

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
      FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
430 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>022-023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-
019-230930-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DU PAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
430 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON AND CHAMPAIGN ILLINOIS.

IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL AGAIN BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 57 INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

LMZ740>745-766-230930-
WINTHROP HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN-
LAKE MICHIGAN-
430 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS ON LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS AND WAVES UP TO
7 FEET WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE AGAIN THE
MAIN THREATS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH
WAVES IN EXCESS OF 6 FEET.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

RATZER

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>