Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
220 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...
220 PM CDT

SOLAR POWER WITH A CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 86 HAS BEEN THE TRIGGER SO FAR
WITH THE LATEST SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM OUTBREAK. THE MOISTURE
POOL IS FAIRLY SHALLOW NOW BUT MODELS PROMISE TO INCREASE THE LAYER
BY TUESDAY. SO CAN EXPECT MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BUT CAN ALSO
EXPECT A LOWER TRIGGER TEMP OF 78. CAPES ARE LOOKING MORE
THREATENING NOW THAN MODELED FOR TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. SAME GOES FOR
LI VALUES. HOWEVER MODELS ALSO DRIVING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THIS WAY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY TRIGGERS FOR LIFT.

THESE WAVES ARE JUST OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE
PLAINS NOW AND DROPPING DOWN THRU THE UPPER AND MID MS VLY ON
TUESDAY AND NEARLY STALLING ACROSS THE LAKES AND MID MS VLY
WEDNESDAY. DONT HAVE REAL GOOD SHEAR WITH ANY STORM OUTBREAK NEXT
TWO DAYS. FREEZING LVL IS UP TO 14K SO VILS SHOULD NOT BE UNLIKE NOW
WHERE WE ARE GETTING PROSPECTS FOR AROUND AN INCH HAIL FROM THE
ALGORITHM. BUT DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ANY MID LVL DRYING ON FCST
SOUNDINGS FOR DOWNDRAFTS TOMORROW. WILL START OFF WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS THIS EVENING THEN CHC OVERNIGHT...TO SCT TSTMS AGAIN TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE CHC TSTMS IN FCST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN FROPA SHUD
CUT OFF SFC SUPPORT. BUT UPR TROF NOT THRU UNTIL THURSDAY...SO RAIN
CHANCES MAY NOT ALTOGETHER DISAPPEAR. BUT WILL HAVE DRY AND MILD
CONDS FOR NOW INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BLDG OVER THE MIDWEST.

RLB

&&

.AVIATION...
100 PM CDT

FOR 18Z TAFS...CUMULUS CONGESTUS WITH BASES AROUND 4500-5000 KFT ARE
OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. VERY ISOLD TSRA POPPING UP IN
RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE INDICATED IN MODELS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVR CENT IL MOVING NE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
UPR LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM OR SFC BOUNDARIES...COVERAGE OF THUNDER
SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED. THUNDER AND CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 02Z
WITH LOSS OF DIURAL HEATING. CONVECTION BUILDING OVR THE KC METRO
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEND CIRRUS ACROSS MO/IA AND INTO IL THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HIGH BASES CU FIELD SHOULD BEGIN TO
THICKEN AGAIN AFT 14Z TUES...THOUGH IT APPEARS BETTER LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT
18Z...SO NO MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS POINT BEYOND THIS AFTN.

RRH

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
430 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>022-023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-
019-300930-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DU PAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
430 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

LMZ740>745-766-300930-
WINTHROP HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN-
LAKE MICHIGAN-
430 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
221 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     HAIL             POSEN                   41.63N 87.69W
05/29/2006  E1.75 INCH       COOK               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BROKE FRONT WINDSHIELD ON SQUAD CAR.

&&

RBRUMER