Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
713 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

.DISCUSSION REGARDING MORNING ZONES/GRIDS...
250 PM CDT

THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY 06 UTC. THAT IS WHEN THE RUC MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY UNTIL 08 UTC. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AT 19 UTC.
THERE IS A SURFACE BOUNDARY THERE AS WELL. ANOTHER BOUNDARY IN
NORTHWEST INDIANA. THESE AND OTHER BOUNDARIES ARE KEEPING THE
CONVECTION GOING THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS IS A STRONG VORTICITY  MAXIMUM AND THERE IS VERY WARM AIR
FEEDING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS LONG THERE IS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WE WILL HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEYOND HAVE
MADE LITTLE CHANGES. USING THE GFS MODEL THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. THIS SHOULD GIVE DRIER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...

713 PM CDT

CONVECTION TRENDS...WINDS AND POTENTIAL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVRNGT MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS.

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED IN PROFILER/WATER VAPOR DATA MOVG
ACROSS EASTERN IA EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN IL/NW IND CONTINUES TO FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WILL/SRN COOK COUNTIES AT
2345Z...WITH NARROW BAND OF WEAKER AND APPARENTLY MORE ELEVATED
CONVECTION EXTENDING NORTH FROM NEAR ELGIN INTO SERN WI. APPEARS
THREAT OF CONVECTION AT TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS THIS EVENING...AS WAA AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE MAINTAINS
LIFT/CONVERGENCE FOR ELEVATED STORMS. INDUCED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORT WAVE SHOULD DECREASE THREAT BY LATE EVENING. BASED ON THIS
HAVE INCLUDED JUST A VCTS AT DPA/ORD/MDW FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
A TEMP SHRA AS WEAK CELLS OVER NRN COOK/DUPAGE COUNTIES MOVE EAST.
HAVE CARRIED A SHORT TEMPO FOR THUNDER AT KGYY AS STRONG CELL OVER
SRN COOK WILL MOVE NEAR GARY IN NEXT HOUR.

NEXT CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR VSBY AND/OR CIGS LATER TNGT
OVER RECENTLY WETTED GROUND AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES AND
SKIES CLEAR BEHIND SHORT WAVE. FCST SOUNDINGS OFF WRF/GFS...AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM ETA/GFS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS
FROM 3-5SM TO LESS THAN A MILE COME SUNRISE. WARM GROUND CONDITIONS
MAY SUPPORT MORE OF A LOW STRATUS DECK...THOUGH RELATIVELY MOIST
LLVL CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW VSBY REDUCTION IN BR/FG. HAVE HINTED THAT
WAY FOR NOW WITH A 3-4SM IN TEMPO BR FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE
WITH A SCT IFR DECK.

WIND WISE...SSELY WINDS GUSTING NR 20KTS SHOULD DECREASE FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...WITH GRADIENT SUPPORTING SLY FLOW AOB 10KTS
OVRNGT. SLY FLOW 190-210 DEG EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUES WITH SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST.

PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR TUES APPEARS TO BE BEST TUES NGT WITH APPROACH
OF CDFNT...AS FCST SNDNGS INDICATE SOME CAPPING DURING THE DAY.
BETTER LLVL SUPPORT EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA
DURG DAY AS WELL...ALONG SFC WARMFRONT.

RATZER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH 806 UNTIL 02 UTC NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
.IN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH 806 UNTIL 02 UTC NORTHWEST INDIANA.
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 02 UTC ILLINOIS SHORE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
115 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>022-023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-
019-022130-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DU PAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
115 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE... THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.  THESE
STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-766-022130-
WINTHROP HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN-
LAKE MICHIGAN-
115 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE... THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
HAZARDOUS WAVES OF UP TO 5 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>