Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
630 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...
320 PM CDT

H5 LOW CONTINUES ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING HAS
ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA. SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

CENTER OF UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS FORECASTS AREA TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY. EXPECT SYSTEM TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY END OF DAY
THAT PRECIP SHOULD END BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. UPPER FLOW THEN BEGINS
TO BACK ALLOWS TEMPS TO WARM THE UPPER 70S BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP WITH UPPER TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...
630 PM CDT

THE UPPER LOW IS CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO NWRN ILLINOIS.
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE SWEPT THROUGH NCNTRL IL AND
ARE NOW BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES.  THE LINE OF
TS ARE WEAKENING WITH THE SETTING SUN...BUT TS SHOULD BE OVER THE
TAF SITES FOR ABOUT 2 HRS.  FOLLOWING THE LINE OF TS...A PERIOD OF
TRAILING SHRA SHOULD HANG AROUND...KEEPING THE RUNWAYS WET FOR A
COUPLE HOURS LONGER.  AS THE PCPN WINDS DOWN...VIS WILL BECOME THE
AREA OF CONCERN. WITH THE RAIN THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY...THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE
MOIST.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VRBL DUE TO THE VERY
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SFC.  AT THE VERY LEAST...MVFR VIS IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL OF TAF SITE WITH FURTHER REDUCTIONS TO IFR
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE MORE RURAL SITES.  BY LATE
MORNING...FCST RH TIMESECTIONS ARE INDICATING THAT SKIES SHOULD GO
SCT-BKN...BUT WITH BASES WITHIN VFR RANGES.  TOMORROW...THE REGION
WILL SHIFT TO A MORE COLD ADVECTIVE PATTERN UNDER NLY WINDS AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER FLOW.

KREIN

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
430 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2006

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>022-023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-
019-050930-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DU PAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
430 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2006

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH AROUND 700 PM CDT.  THE STORMS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...HOWEVER ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 NEAR THE
ILLINOIS RIVER.  THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS LARGE HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...HOWEVER...FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN INDIANA BY
AROUND 700 PM CDT.  THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 1000
PM CDT.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

LMZ740>745-766-050930-
WINTHROP HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN-
LAKE MICHIGAN-
430 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2006

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY
AROUND 700 PM CDT THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS HAIL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
610 PM CDT MON SEP 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0204 PM     HAIL             ROCKFORD                42.27N 89.06W
09/04/2006  U0.75 INCH       WINNEBAGO          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY TO PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF ROCKFORD

0251 PM     HAIL             FRANKLIN GROVE          41.84N 89.30W
09/04/2006  E0.88 INCH       LEE                IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL ONE MILE NORTH OF FRANKLIN GROVE

0326 PM     HAIL             ROCKFORD                42.27N 89.06W
09/04/2006  U0.88 INCH       WINNEBAGO          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER INCH ACCUMULATION OF NICKEL SIZED HAIL ON THE
            NORTHEAST SIDE OF ROCKFORD

0335 PM     HAIL             ROCKFORD                42.27N 89.06W
09/04/2006  E0.75 INCH       WINNEBAGO          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3/4 INCH HAIL ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF ROCKFORD

0344 PM     HAIL             S ROCKFORD              42.27N 89.06W
09/04/2006  U1.75 INCH       WINNEBAGO          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL TO THE SOUTH OF ROCKFORD NEAR
            JEFFERSON HIGH SCHOOL

0525 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ROCKFORD                42.27N 89.06W
09/04/2006  U0.00 INCH       WINNEBAGO          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ROCKFORD AREA...CARS
            FLOATING IN HIGH WATER AND NUMEROUS STREETS CLOSED TO
            TRAFFIC

&&

CGITRO

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