Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...

A COUPLE OF BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH THE SECOND BAND FROM LOUISVILLE TO NEAR BOWLING
GREEN AT 1930Z.  THIS BAND WAS STRENGTHENING AND WAS LOCATED ALONG A
BAND OF UNSTABLE LI/S. THIS BAND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EAST. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. THESE STORMS COULD STILL
BECOME SEVERE AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DRY LINE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE EAST INTO INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND TO LEXINGTON AND INTERSTATE 75 BY EARLY EVENING.
AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN...THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.

AFTER THE STORMS MOVE OUT...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WITH BE WHEN THE
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE. NAM AND GFS SIMILAR THROUGH 36 HOURS AND WILL
USE A MODEL BLEND FOR FORECAST.

AFTER THE DRY LINE MOVES THROUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING BUT ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL
SWING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODEL TIME SECTIONS KEEP LOWEST
LEVEL RH HIGH AND THIS CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY. WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NAM MOS AND WILL
LEAN A LITTLE CLOSER TO WARMER GFS MOS. ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN TODAY BUT AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD
BOOST READINGS UP NEAR 50 DEGREES. HAVE GONE A LITTLE CLOSER TO GFS
MOS FOR TUESDAY. GUSTS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP WINDS
BRISK AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS TUESDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT AROUND DEEP LOW MOVING INTO CANADA WILL BE SLOW TO
DECREASE.

SCHOLZ

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THOROUGH MONDAY)...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

AS SFC CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CRUISE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A FEW
FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA.  ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY
BRING CLEARING SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL.  IN THE PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR TEMPERATURES.  WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS
PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND
THE COOLEST DAY APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING
THE LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SFC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THE SAME TIME...DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
RISES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE FA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S.  THE LATEST EXTENDED
MODEL PROGS BRING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY JUST OUTSIDE THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM

SFC RIDGING AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTH
WEST.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION COULD MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY
AS SFC CYCLONE PULLS EASTWARD.  THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM ON THE FRONT SIDE...WITH A RETURN OF WINTRY WEATHER
ON THE BACK SIDE.

-MJ

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.

IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
401 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-140900-
ADAIR KY-ALLEN KY-ANDERSON KY-BARREN KY-BOURBON KY-BOYLE KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-BULLITT KY-BUTLER KY-CASEY KY-CLARK IN-CLARK KY-
CLINTON KY-CRAWFORD IN-CUMBERLAND KY-DUBOIS IN-EDMONSON KY-
FAYETTE KY-FLOYD IN-FRANKLIN KY-GARRARD KY-GRAYSON KY-GREEN KY-
HANCOCK KY-HARDIN KY-HARRISON IN-HARRISON KY-HART KY-HENRY KY-
JEFFERSON IN-JEFFERSON KY-JESSAMINE KY-LARUE KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
MADISON KY-MARION KY-MEADE KY-MERCER KY-METCALFE KY-MONROE KY-
NELSON KY-NICHOLAS KY-OHIO KY-OLDHAM KY-ORANGE IN-PERRY IN-
RUSSELL KY-SCOTT IN-SCOTT KY-SHELBY KY-SIMPSON KY-SPENCER KY-
TAYLOR KY-TRIMBLE KY-WARREN KY-WASHINGTON IN-WASHINGTON KY-
WOODFORD KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBANY...BARDSTOWN...BEAVER DAM...
BOWLING GREEN...CAMPBELLSVILLE...COLUMBIA...CORYDON...CYNTHIANA...
DANVILLE...ELIZABETHTOWN...ENGLISH...FRANKFORT...FRANKLIN...
GEORGETOWN...GLASGOW...HARDINSBURG...HARRODSBURG...JAMESTOWN...
JASPER...JEFFERSONVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...LEITCHFIELD...LEXINGTON...
LOUISVILLE...MADISON...MOUNT WASHINGTON...MUNFORDVILLE...
NEW ALBANY...PARIS...RICHMOND...RUSSELLVILLE...SCOTTSVILLE...
SHELBYVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...STANFORD...TAYLORSVILLE...TELL
CITY...TOMPKINSVILLE...VERSAILLES...WINCHESTER
401 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 900 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.  THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MADISON INDIANA
TO RUSSELLVILLE KY.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE
OUTLOOK AREA BY 1000 PM EST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND BE READY FOR ACTIVATION THIS EVENING.  SPOTTERS AND
LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE ASKED TO RELAY STORM REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN LOUISVILLE.  SPOTTERS CAN ALSO USE THE
E-SPOTTER SYSTEM WHICH IS LOCATED ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

JARVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
525 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             UPTON                   37.46N 85.89W
03/13/2006  M1.25 INCH       HARDIN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RL

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