Severe Thunderstorm Warning 416, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
310 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)...

SOME MODEST MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS...AS
THE NAM/WRF HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER THAN THE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS
FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BUY THAT FOR LATER
TONIGHT...BUT LIKE THE LOOK OF THE SREF RUNS FOR MONDAY SHOWING THE
LULL IN PRECIP TONIGHT AND DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WITHIN THE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MONDAY AND WILL
FOLLOW ITS SOLUTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
NEED WATCH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS WITH
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND DEEP MOISTURE CREEPING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE GULF...VERY NOTICEABLE ON VIS SAT. DEWPOINTS HAVE SURGED INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S

UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NW IOWA...WRAPPING UP TIGHTLY...WITH RIDGING
BUILDING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND SW FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MAY START TO LIFT AS A WARM
FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. VORT SHOULD HAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS MAY KEEP
ANY DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING...THOUGH SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LAST NIGHT LOWS WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS...WILL GO
TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF MOS OR A DEGREE HIGHER FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SFC LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST
INTO THE MS VALLEY...AREA REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR WITH VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. DECENT LIS OF -3 TO
-5 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CAPES NEARING 2000-2500 J/KG WILL BE
PREVALENT MONDAY AFTERNOON...THANKS TO AMPLE HEATING AS H850 TEMPS
CLIMB CLOSE TO 16C...WARM FOR MID SEPT. SCTD STORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT...BUT
PWATS NEAR 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE AREA. USED MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

--SCHOTT

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

A WET FORECAST WILL BE IN STORE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX ROUNDING THE TOP OF A WEST COAST RIDGE WILL
DROP SOUTH AND DIG A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE ALREADY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NAM HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS BUT IT STILL IS NOT AS
STRONG. FOR THIS FORECAST WE WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE GFS WHICH
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND TRACKS IT
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REACHING LEXINGTON AND BOWLING GREEN
AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY.

THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATES A MOSTLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE
TUESDAY SO WE WILL SEE CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A GOOD BET TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WE WILL GRADUALLY END PRECIPITATION
FROM THE WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER TUESDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND WITH THE COOLER AIR FILTERING IN
WEDNESDAYS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH THE SAME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

FAIRLY BEGIN WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH AND A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. AT THE SURFACE MILD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND CLEAR NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY BUT
RISE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MID SEPTEMBER NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS NEXT SUNDAY AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA BUT FOR NOW WE
WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY.  --JA

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
336 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006

KYZ070-102015-
LOGAN-
236 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUST FRONT AFFECTING LOGAN COUNTY...

AT 231 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD...AND MOVING NORTH
AT 10 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35
TO 40 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE AWARE THAT A GUST FRONT PRECEDING THESE STORMS WILL GENERATE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WELL AHEAD OF THE RAIN.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SCHOTT

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