Severe Thunderstorm Warning 409, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
237 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...

LATEST RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE STATE.  WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES NOTED ON AREA OBS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO THE LOWER 70S OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY.  RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION...THE FIRST MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY AHEAD OF
WEAK MID LEVEL VORT.  SECOND BATCH JUST NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN KY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SMALL VORT.  THESE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVER THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FCST PD.  CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STILL LOCATED NORTH OF THE FA.  BOTH THE NAM-WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
BRING THIS FRONT ON THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD.  VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT NOTED AS PWATS ARE
RUNNING AROUND 2 INCHES OR SO.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  GIVEN THAT...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND WILL BE TRAILING THEM FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MORNING.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.  SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT AS
BEST DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL LOCATED NE OF THERE.  HOWEVER...WITH
HIGH PWATS...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.

FOR TUESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL BE TAPERING POPS OFF FROM NW
TO SE...AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.  SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S IN THE NORTH AND MID 80S DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

-MJ

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

REMNANTS OF NE CUTOFF TO DRIFT SLOWLY ESE ACROSS FA ON TUE AND WED.
CDFNT WILL DROP SE INTO FA LATER TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTHEAST OF
FA DURING TUE...BUT IT SHOULD BE SLOW GOING UNTIL THE UPPER TROF
REMNANTS DROP ACROSS THE REGION ON WED. DURING THIS THE UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY TILTED. NONETHELESS WE  WILL KEEP
A 20-30 CHC OF SHOWERS FROM TUE AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY... EVEN THOUGH
THE COLD FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA BY TUE EVE.

ON THURS INTO SATURDAY...A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE ERN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES...AND ADJACENT
PTNS OF SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO SPREAD SOMEWHAT DRIER AND SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

LATER ON SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED CYCLONIC LOW IS
GENERALLY FCST BY THE THE VARIOUS LONG RANGE MODELS TO DRIFT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEST REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND...IN
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FAS WE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

OVERALL FOR THE PERIOD...NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS EACH DAY.

-21

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
430 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-290830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
430 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT...PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. ANY STORM WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN RECENTLY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CALL WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND REPORTS OF FLOODING
OR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. YOU CAN ALSO USE OUR E-SPOTTER SYSTEM ON
THE WEBSITE AT: WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

CS/MJ/AB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
444 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

KYZ066-077-078-282115-
ADAIR-CASEY-RUSSELL-
344 PM CDT MON AUG 28 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER ADAIR COUNTY MOVING INTO RUSSELL AND
SOUTHERN CASEY COUNTIES...

AT 340 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF
COLUMBIA TO 7 MILES WEST OF JAMESTOWN...OR FROM 17 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LIBERTY TO 21 MILES WEST OF MONTICELLO...AND MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND
ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND
GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR JAMESTOWN BY 400 PM CDT.
  NEAR RUSSELL SPRINGS BY 400 PM CDT.

EXPECT PONDING WATER ON LOCAL ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND
TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

TWF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
455 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

KYZ024-027-028-282130-
BRECKINRIDGE-GRAYSON-HARDIN-
355 PM CDT MON AUG 28 2006

...LINE OF STRONG STORMS TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF BRECKINRIDGE...
GRAYSON AND HARDIN COUNTIES...

AT 353 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HARDINSBURG TO 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF LEITCHFIELD TO 13 MILES NORTH OF MORGANTOWN...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR HARNED BY 400 PM CDT.
  NEAR MADRID BY 405 PM CDT.
  NEAR GARFIELD BY 410 PM CDT.
  NEAR HUDSON BY 415 PM CDT.
  NEAR CUSTER BY 420 PM CDT.
  NEAR DYER BY 425 PM CDT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT PONDING
WATER ON LOCAL ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR
HEADLIGHTS IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

CS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
516 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

KYZ063-064-282200-
GREEN-HART-
416 PM CDT MON AUG 28 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF HART AND
GREEN COUNTIES...

AT 414 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN HART COUNTY EAST OF
MUNFORDVILLE AND WESTERN GREEN COUNTY. THE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH...BUT WERE REDEVELOPING OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

AS A RESULT...TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
HALF MILE AT TIMES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALSO WAS OCCURING WITH THE
STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN HART AND MUCH OF GREEN
COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
PONDING WATER WILL BE COMMON ON ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. CREEKS
AND SMALL STREAMS COULD APPROACH BANKFULL. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
DRIVING.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  LINWOOD...SUMMERSVILLE...AND ALLENDALE.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

TWF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
525 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

INZ076-282200-
ORANGE-
525 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 518 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ENGLISH...OR 31 MILES SOUTH
OF BEDFORD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR YOUNGS CREEK BY 530 PM EDT.
  NEAR CHAMBERSBURG BY 540 PM EDT.
  NEAR MILLERSBURG BY 550 PM EDT.
  NEAR BROMER BY 555 PM EDT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT PONDING
WATER ON LOCAL ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR
HEADLIGHTS IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

CS

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