Severe Thunderstorm Warning 395, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
239 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...

CURRENTLY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM APPROXIMATELY
NW OH TO SE MO. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION. SKIES HAVE BEEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY...AND
WITH THE AREA PRECIP...A FEW LOCATIONS OTHER THAN SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE HAVING TROUBLE REACHING THE UPPER 80S. LAPS
DATA SHOW UNSTABLE AIR BASICALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...SO
CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AND PERHAPS DISSIPATE OR WEAKEN
AS IT REACHES THE ERN CWA. JUST HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE SHOULD LAST
THROUGH ROUGHLY 4-5PM EDT.

THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL OFF TO THE NW...AND IS EXPECTED
TO REACH ROUGHLY THE OHIO RIVER BY THE 8-10PM TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH
NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT (THOUGH SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED BEHIND IT ALONG A SECONDARY MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER
IA/IL/MO)...STILL EXPECT SOMETHING TO GENERATE ALONG IT ESPECIALLY
GIVEN INSTABILITY LOCATED TO THE WEST AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX
APPROACHING WITH RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF 250MB JET. WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE ANY SEVERE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO COULD OCCUR.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NW AROUND 00Z...AND THEN
TRANSITIONING SEWD THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM/GFS/RUC HAVE THE FRONT
THROUGH HALF THE CWA BY 06Z...AND THROUGH THE WHOLE CWA BY ROUGHLY
20Z TUESDAY.

AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT PRECIP OVER IA/IL/MO WILL LIKELY PERSIST
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE SLT CHC POPS BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THIS MORNINGS CEILINGS...WILL ALSO CARRY
LOW MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN TAFS. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG
IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH STRATUS BUILD DOWN. CAN EXPECT A SLOW WARM
UP BECAUSE OF THESE CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY. WITH RESIDUAL SHOWER/STORM
CHANCE ALONG THE FRONT TOMORROW...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE ONLY THREATS...AND PERHAPS WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

WITH CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS TO NOT DROP OFF QUITE
AS MUCH. WILL RAISE CURRENT LOW TEMP FOR TONIGHT A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER A
NORTHERLY WIND.

AL

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...

CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLNS DEPICT UPPER TROF MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TUES WITH SFC FRONT SETTLING SWD
INTO SE CONUS. PRECIP CHANCES WELL S OF THE CWA BY 0Z/WED...WITH ALL
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING CLR SKIES TUE NIGHT WHICH IS CONFIRMED IN
MODEL RH TIME-HEIGHT CHARTS.

THERMAL TROF OVERSPREADS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WED WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 850MB TEMP READINGS. MAX/MINS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL WED AS A RESULT. AFTERWARDS...NCEP ENS MEAN FCSTS UPPER
RIDGING TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE SE CONUS. HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF
THE 500MB RIDGE THU-SAT IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED IN TODAYS DATA AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN. THIS COULD MEAN BETTER CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION...WITH ENS MOS POPS IN THE 15-20% RANGE SHOWING
UP AS EARLY NOW AS FRI. AM NOT READY TO MENTION POPS THAT SOON...BUT
CERTAINLY SOME ISLTD CELLS POSSIBLE FRI AFTN/EVE AS PW VALUES
INCREASE.

ASSOC WITH THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGING FCST...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
TROF IS INDICATED TO RACE EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SAT. THIS WILL HELP BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
LOWER OH VLY SOMETIME SAT NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE CHC OF TSRA FOR SAT
IN THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS IS USUAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR...ENS MEAN DATA SHOWING HIGH INSTABILITY SAT AFTN BUT
VERY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR...SO A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE BUT
WIDESPREAD SVR WX NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LATEST DATA SHOW FRONT S OF THE CWA BY 0Z/MON WITH POOL OF BELOW
NORMAL PW VALUES ADVECTING INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ALTER POPS FOR SUNDAY RIGHT NOW DUE TO INHERENT
UNCERTAINTIES WITH FRONTAL SPEED AT THESE FORECAST TIME RANGES...SO
WILL LEAVE BROAD 30 POPS IN FOR SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY...GIVEN THAT
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE S OF THE CWA...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. OF
COURSE...IF FRONT ENDS UP BEING SLOWER THEN PRECIP CHANCES MAY HAVE
TO BE INSERTED FOR MON.

CS

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
247 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

KYZ061-141915-
BUTLER-
147 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

...STRONG STORM AFFECTING BUTLER COUNTY...

AT 139 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MORGANTOWN...OR 17 MILES
EAST OF CENTRAL CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR ABERDEEN BY 200 PM CDT.
  5 MILES NORTH OF WOODBURY BY 210 PM CDT.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 27
AND 34.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

CS