Severe Thunderstorm Warning 391, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
230 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

.IN THE SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

WILL KEEP FOCUS ON CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THEN THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9
PM FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY EXCEPT
FOR THE ROW OF COUNTIES BORDERING TENNESSEE.

MAIN THREAT FROM EXPECTED STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS NOW IN IOWA...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
IN MISSOURI. THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS THE CWA UNTIL
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...WITH INDIVIDUAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
EARLIER STORMS. INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS VERY HIGH...WITH LIS
AS HIGH AS -10 BETWEEN LOUISVILLE AND PADUCAH.

THE INITIAL STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND ACROSS
THE BLUEGRASS REGION. THESE ARE FORMING BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. OTHER STORMS WILL MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER TOTALS ARE QUITE HIGH...AVERAGING OVER 2 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL AVERAGE 20 MPH...ANY AREAS WITH REPEATED
OR TRAINING STORMS MAY SEE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TOWARDS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS OHIO AND INDIANA TOMORROW.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWITCH WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY BRING IN DISTINCTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR.

JSD

IN THE EXTENDED(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL SHUTTLE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING
SWELLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING US FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY SAG SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN. AS A RESULT OF THESE
FACTORS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BE MINIMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE SHOWN ADMIRABLE AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS REGARDING A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SPED THE FRONT UP A BIT...BUT
STILL BRING IT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...SIMILAR TO PAST RUNS. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY FOR A DRY MID-WEEK.

13

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9 PM EDT.
IN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9 PM EDT.
&&

JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1230 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ029>043-045>049-055>057-067-111330-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-
LINCOLN KY-
1130 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006 /1230 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 100 AND 105 THIS AFTERNOON.
PERSONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT SHOULD LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ORGANIZED DAMAGING
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OR MORE BOW ECHOS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM INDIANAPOLIS THROUGH CINCINNATI MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND WEAK NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW THESE STORMS
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AFTER MID AFTERNOON...
AND INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT FROM ANY STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

KYZ023>028-053-054-061>066-070>078-081-082-111330-
HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-
BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-
1130 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006 /1230 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 100 AND 105 THIS AFTERNOON.
PERSONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT SHOULD LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS FROM WET MICROBURSTS
POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS EXPECTED CONVECTION ACROSS INDIANA MOVES SOUTH.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT FROM ANY STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

JSD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
522 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

KYZ027-028-045-053-054-063>065-102145-
GRAYSON-GREEN-HARDIN-HART-LARUE-MARION-NELSON-TAYLOR-
522 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

AT 421 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES NORTH OF LEITCHFIELD...OR 42 MILES
NORTH OF BOWLING GREEN...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35
TO 40 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
65 AND 94.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN KENTUCKY (FORD) PARKWAY BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 107 AND 137.

IF ON OR NEAR A LAKE...RIVER...OR SWIMMING POOL...GET OUT OF THE
WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW. DONT BE CAUGHT ON
THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
523 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HARRODSBURG             37.77N 84.85W
08/10/2006                   MERCER             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE AND ELECTRIC LINE DOWNED

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
527 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEXINGTON               38.04N 84.46W
08/10/2006                   FAYETTE            KY   PUBLIC

            SIDING BLOWN OFF HOUSE ON SOUTHEAST SIDE OF CITY

&&

LD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
527 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

INZ083-084-089-102200-
CRAWFORD-DUBOIS-PERRY-
427 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

...STRONG STORMS AFFECTING CRAWFORD...DUBOIS AND PERRY COUNTIES...

AT 425 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES EAST OF
JASPER TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRANDVIEW...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE HALF
MILE...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 50 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR UNIONTOWN BY 435 PM CDT.
  NEAR TASWELL BY 540 PM EDT.
  NEAR MIFFLIN BY 545 PM EDT.
  NEAR GRANTSBURG BY 550 PM EDT.
  NEAR SULPHUR SPRINGS BY 555 PM EDT.
  NEAR GERALD BY 500 PM CDT.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN INDIANA BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 74 AND 86.

STRONG WINDS CAN TOPPLE WEAKLY ROOTED TREES...AND DOWN POWER LINES.
TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

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