Severe Thunderstorm Warning 372, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
948 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006

.UPDATE...
TSRA ONGOING FROM WEST OF JASPER TO HARDINSBURG...WITH NEW CELLS
NEAR LEITCHFIELD AND S OF BWG. CELLS OVER HANCOCK COUNTY HAVE
BEEN PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS FEEL
SCT TSRA WILL CONTINUE SW OF A HNB-SME LINE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE...LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE THE THREATS.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A DIMINISHING TREND COVERAGE-WISE AFTERWARDS...
HOWEVER LATEST NAM IS INDICATING INCREASING K-INDICES OVERNIGHT
AS 850MB FLOW PICKS UP A BIT. A FEW ISLTD TSRA ARE THEREFORE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SO WILL
INCLUDE THAT IN THE FCST UPDATE...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL NW OF CWA PER LATEST SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS...COOLING THOSE AREAS THAT
HAVE SEEN RAIN IN SRN INDIANA INTO AREAS WEST OF FTK.

UPDATED FORECAST OUT BY 10 PM EDT.

CS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 833 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006)

MESO UPDATE...
STORMS AS OF NOW CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN THE LMK CWA WEST OF A
HARDINSBURG TO PAOLI LINE. SO FAR...REPORTS HAVE BEEN MAINLY OF
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THESE CELLS. FREEZING
LEVELS ON ACARS SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER HIGH (14.5KFT)...SO PRECIP
EFFICIENCY WILL BE HIGH. CELLS ARE TRAINING OVER THE PERRY AND
DUBOIS COUNTY AREAS...WE HAVE A FLOOD ADVISORY OUT FOR DUBOIS
COUNTY UNTIL 9 PM CDT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH PERRY FOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING ISSUES. CELL COMING OUT OF SPENCER COUNTY INDIANA INTO
PERRY CO LOOKS INTENSE...AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. ONGOING
FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE.

CS

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 301 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. CUMULUS WAS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS OF 1830Z NO
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED.

MODELS BRING A SHORT WAVE SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS
THE SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT. POPS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY SET IN ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB AND 500 MB WARM BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
NEARER TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

WILL STAY CLOSE GENERALLY CLOSE TO GFS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

SCHOLZ

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

GENERALLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WEATHER WILL BE GOVERNED BY UPPER
LEVEL S/W PASSING THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW.  DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS A GOOD BET EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.  COMBINING THIS WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE.  06Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS SHOW
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY.
CURRENT FCST HANDLES THIS WELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHER POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.  SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AND THEN ACTUALLY MAY BEGIN
TO STALL A BIT ACROSS TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AND WILL LEAVE
MONDAY/TUE DRY FOR NOW.  A BIT OF A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SAT/SUN WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING ON MON/TUE BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

-MJ

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

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