Severe Thunderstorm Warning 348, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. AT MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS NEAR
BOWLING GREEN TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S WITH SUNSHINE. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AND SHRINKING IN AREAL COVERAGE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW MUCH WILL OCCUR WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES.

EXPECT THAT AS BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION OVER WEST KENTUCKY MOVE
INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO MID LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING EAST FROM MISSOURI AND LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL
HELP TO INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AS THESE SYSTEMS MOVE TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE AND WILL BE ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL END ALL
ACROSS THE AREA BY NOON.

SCHOLZ

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP ALLOWING THE SURFACE
COLD DROP SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.  COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  TUESDAY WILL BE THE PICK
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS THE PATTERN
SHIFTS TO ZONAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  WITH THIS SHIFT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY STARTING ON
FRIDAY.  AT THE SURFACE THE FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE.  HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY BRINGING
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW.  DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY OVER THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED T-STORMS WITH THE
HUMID AIR MASS SITTING OVER THE REGION.  USED A BLEND OF MEX AND GFS
ENSEMBLE FOR TEMPERATURES.

AML

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-120830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
340 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL HELP TRIGGER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.  THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. CALL
OUR SPOTTER LINE...OR SEND A REPORT VIA E-SPOTTER ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

SCHOLZ

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