Severe Thunderstorm Warning 330, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
245 PM EDT WED JUN 7 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY)...

CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN MI THRU
NW IN BACK INTO CENTRAL IL. STORMS HAVE BLOWN UP WITHIN THE LAST
HOUR ACROSS THE FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL IN. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
CLOSING IN ON OUR CWA HAS GENERATED STRONG STORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 ARE ADVECTING NEWD ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THIS WILL
BE THE NEXT WAVE OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. CAPES AND LIS ARE
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND -4 DEGREES CELSIUS RESPECTIVELY ALONG
THE TROUGH BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE OFF TO THE NORTH. THESE
PREFRONTAL STORMS COULD BE SEVERE NONETHELESS (GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY) AS A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THREE TIERS OF COUNTIES. LOOKING AT MAINLY HAIL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT DAMAGING WINDS.

FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED...LIS ARE AS
LOW AS -6 OR -7 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE WOLCOTT INDIANA VWP IS
SHOWING 50 KTS AT 6KM. AS THIS JET WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD...ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF COULD ALSO BE SEVERE
AND MAY AFFECT OUR CWA AFTER THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DOES...UNLESS
THINGS STABILIZE IN THE WAKE. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS AND SEVERE
WORDING FROM NOW UNTIL STORMS END...MOSTLY LIKELY AROUND 03Z NW
AND 06Z SE.

TOMORROW...LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL COME DOWN FROM THE SOUTH
ACROSS OHIO...AND WILL CLIP EASTERN KY. WILL LEAVE IT DRY BUT WILL
BUMP UP CLOUDS OVER THE BLUEGRASS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A NICE
DAY. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S NE TO THE LOWER 80S WEST AND SW.

AL

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

MODELS CONTAINS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH MOISTURE...BUT LITTLE ELSE SO
A MODEL BLEND CLOSER TO THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS USED THRU
THIS PERIOD. WNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SFC
HI NUDGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SFC RIDGING MOVES OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SET-UP NEAR OR OVER THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY.

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE PATTERN THRU THIS
PERIOD THE LAST FEW DAYS...ONLY ISSUE IS WHERE THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL SET-UP AND REMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN
INCORPORATING THE TRENDS FROM THE 06 AND 12Z GFS WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING SIMILAR FEATURES. TELECONNECTIONS SHOW A POSITIVE TRENDING
EPO WHICH USUALLY MEANS BUILDING OF RIDGING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...THOUGH IF THE NAO TRENDS MORE NEGATIVE THEN THIS CAN BE
NEGATED SOME. ALSO THE MJO INDEX IS NEAR 4 TO 6...USUALLY THIS LEADS
TO RIDGING AS WELL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SE CONUS. THEREFORE
LIKE THE TREND OF THE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE
PERIOD.

WNW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS...AND TROUGH
IN THE EASTERN CONUS...AS A H500 CUTOFF SITS NEAR THE ST LAW RVR
VALLEY...PATTERN FLATTENS OUT SOME WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SET NEAR OR OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...THIS WILL HAVE A
HUGE IMPACT FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH A VERY STRONG TEMP GRADIENT
EXPECTED...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE 90S
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY BE CLOUD/PRECIP COOLED IN THE LOWER 70S.
HAVE NOT YET ATTEMPTED TO AND SUCH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...BUT SUCH A SCENARIO WILL BE VERY LIKELY SATURDAY THRU
MONDAY. WITH BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR...OR OVER THE REGION HAVE
INCLUDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE ENTIRE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FRONT SHOULD START TO LIFT SOME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WARM SECTOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE BY
WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

--SCHOTT

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT ALONG AND
     NORTH OF A NEW CASTLE TO LOUISVILLE TO HARTFORD LINE.
IN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR ALL
     INDIANA COUNTIES.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1217 PM EDT WED JUN 7 2006

INZ084-071645-
CRAWFORD-
1217 PM EDT WED JUN 7 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CRAWFORD COUNTY...

AT 1215 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ENGLISH...OR 37 MILES SOUTH OF BEDFORD...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR ENGLISH BY 1225 PM EDT.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
86 AND 92.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

AL