Severe Thunderstorm Warning 313, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
230 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY)...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SOLAR HEATING DIMINISHES. EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AND A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG REDEVELOPING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY EARLY TOMORROW

A STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY BASICALLY
JUST EAST OF KENTUCKY. JET STREAM ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL HELP MOVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THIS RIDGE TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS BY EARLY TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...ENERGY WILL NOT PUSH EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL
TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW. LIKE THIS AFTERNOON...AMPLE HEATING AND MOISTURE
WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A LACK
OF ANY UPPER AIR FORCING WILL PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
SO EXPECT A REPEAT OF SLOW MOVING...DISORGANIZED SCATTERED PULSE
TYPE STORMS THE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED
AREAS AGAIN COULD SEE BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL STAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAYS HIGHS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. JSD

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERALL PATTERN STILL SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING INTO A MEAN RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST DATA DOESNT INDICATE A CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST AS
WAS THE CASE YDA. THE MAIN FCST PROBLEM IS DEALING WITH
TIMING OF JUST WHEN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER SHIFTS TO
A DRY AND MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CONFIGURATION LATER NEXT WEEK.

LATEST HPC FCST TRENDS INDICATE FROPA ACROSS FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AND THAT LOOKS OK FOR THIS FCST...WHICH IS IN LINE
WITH CURRENT TRENDS TOO. UNTIL THEN AND MOSTLY DIURNAL THREAT OF
AFTERNOON AND EVE TSTMS ON TUE AND WED...WITH VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIR IN PLACE. WE WILL END THE PCPN THURS NIGHT AND THEN DRY WITH
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS OVER NEXT WEEKEND. --21

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-290830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
330 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...AND COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND RUNOFF PROBLEMS IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. IN
ADDITION...LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT A HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS
THAT FORM WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING BEING THE BIGGEST THREATS.  A GREATER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
459 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NE TOMPKINSVILLE      36.75N 85.63W
05/28/2006  E60 MPH          MONROE             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LDATTI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
521 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006

INZ077-282145-
WASHINGTON-
521 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006

...STRONG STORM OVER SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 516 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF SALEM...AND MOVING EAST AT 5
MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

CS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
528 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006

KYZ074-282215-
BARREN-
428 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

...SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BARREN COUNTY...

AT 424 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GLASGOW...AND MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING
ONE INCH PER HOUR...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH... ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT PONDING
WATER ON LOCAL ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR
HEADLIGHTS IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS
STORM MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND
UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR CAR INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

CS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
558 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006

INZ091-282230-
FLOYD-
558 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006

...STRONG SLOW MOVING STORM OVER FLOYD COUNTY...

AT 550 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEW ALBANY...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LOUISVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF
AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT PONDING WATER ON
LOCAL ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR
HEADLIGHTS IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS
STORM MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND
UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR CAR INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

CS

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