Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
812 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

.MESO UPDATE...

BKN LINE OF SVR STORMS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CWA FROM OWB TO N OF
LEX AS OF 00 UTC. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND DMG AND LARGE HAIL WITH
THESE STORMS. CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER WRN KY AND
SRN IL...AS THE ENTIRE COMPLEX DRIFTS TO THE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING SOME FLOODING ISSUES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
DUE TO TRAINING CELLS. RADAR IS LIKELY OVERESTIMATING PCPN AMTS
DUE TO HAIL CONTAMINATION...BUT RAIN RATES OF AT LEAST AN INCH PER
HOUR ARE LIKELY...FALLING ON AREAS THAT SAW A LOT OF RAIN LAST
NIGHT. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE CURRENT URBAN/FLOOD ADVSYS TO WARNINGS.
SVR STORMS WITH SOME BOWING CHARACTERISTICS HEADING INTO THE LEX
METRO AREA...AND INTENSE CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY WEST OF I-65
ATTM.

CS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 613 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006)

LINE OF SVR STORMS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SRN IND...SOME HAD
FAIRLY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. BOWING STRUCTURE
DETECTED OVER WASHINGTON COUNTY MOVING INTO CLARK COUNTY MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED INTENSE WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
EXPECTED...HAIL SPIKE ON RECENT RADAR DATA IN CELL NEAR OWB.
STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS
DEVELOPING FURTHER SW INTO WRN KY/SRN IL/SE MO. AS A RESULT...NEW
TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR REMAINDER OF OUR CNTRL KY
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITIES ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ISLTD TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FROM I-65 WESTWARD BASED ON LATEST
MESOANALYSIS.

CS

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 406 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006)

TORNADO WATCHES NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG/N OF AN
EVV-LEX LINE. A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO FROM SE IL UP INTO CNTRL IN. SOME FAIRLY
LARGE HAIL BEING REPORTED FROM THOSE STORMS. WINDS HAVE BACKED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT HNB/SDF/LEX...INDICATING INCREASING
THREAT FOR ISLTD TORNADOES. FURTHER SW...STORMS HAVING A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING OVER FAR SRN IL INTO SE MO...THOUGH THIS AREA WILL
STILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR ADDTL DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL SCT
CONVECTION OVER WRN/CNTRL TN MAY AFFECT SRN/SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
LATER ON.

CS

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006)

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO HOLD SWAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.  DEPARTING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  IN
GENERAL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.  BY LATE SUNDAY...LATEST 00Z GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA THAT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.  PRIND ARE THAT WE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH MONDAY...THEREFORE WE PLAN ON KEEPING A DRY
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.  BY TUESDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE.  SO WE WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN
FOR TUE THROUGH THU.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S. -33

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
430 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-260830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
430 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA IS IN A MODERATE
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VERY MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES TO DEVELOP AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH OF
THE BLUEGRASS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY PARKWAYS. THIS AREA IS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
WIND DAMAGE. THE STORMS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LOUISVILLE. CALL US...OR USE E-SPOTTER ON OUR WEBSITE TO RELAY
REPORTS.

CS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
900 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ENGLISH                 38.33N 86.46W
05/25/2006                   CRAWFORD           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES WERE DOWNED COUNTYWIDE.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
903 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             DEANEFIELD              37.67N 86.82W
05/25/2006  E1.00 INCH       OHIO               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
916 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WILMORE                 37.87N 84.66W
05/25/2006                   JESSAMINE          KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A COUPLE OF TREES WERE DOWN.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
916 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WILMORE                 37.87N 84.66W
05/25/2006                   JESSAMINE          KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A COUPLE OF TREES WERE DOWN.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
919 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HARDINSBURG             37.78N 86.46W
05/25/2006                   BRECKINRIDGE       KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES WERE DOWNED.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
922 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     HAIL             EASTVIEW                37.58N 86.05W
05/25/2006  E0.75 INCH       HARDIN             KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            ALONG THE WESTERN KENTUCKY PARKWAY.

&&

MRC