Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1103 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2006

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO BUMP POPS UP IN THE LEX ZONE. LOOKS LIKE SCT WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IN THE BLUEGRASS. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

CS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1000 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2006)

EVENING UPDATE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN MO WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SFC LOW TO JUST EAST OF PADUCAH AND INTO TN.
SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WARM FRONT NEAR IL/KY
LINE AND SW OF NASHVILLE. OTHER AREA OF SHWRS LOCATED FROM NRN IL
TO ERN KY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IS ALSO DIVING SEWD INTO NRN MO THAT MAY HELP GENERATE AN MCS
ALONG THE WARM FRONT IF CAPPING FROM ACARS SOUNDINGS CAN BE
OVERCOME. NAM/GFS/WRF INDICATE THAT THIS MCS WILL GENERATE
SOMETIME BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT EDT...AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MAINLY MY WRN CWA AND INTO TN BY 4 OR 5 AM EDT. GIVEN 40KT
BULK SHEAR...BOWING SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THIS POTENTIAL MCS. OTHERWISE...ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA
SHWR/STRMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF WESTERLY 40KT LLJ AND
COULD ENHANCE ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.

FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...BASICALLY LOOKING AT ELEVATED
THUNDER WITH SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WILL PROBABLY BE TOO DECOUPLED FOR WIND
GUSTS. AS FOR THE WESTERN CWA...THESE LOCATIONS COULD GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR...AS NEGATIVE SFC LIS ARE CLOSING IN ON THE FAR WRN
CWA. IF THIS MCS DOES DEVELOP...IT COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LARGE HAIL. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD BE IN PADUCAHS CWA...HOWEVER LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM OHIO COUNTY TO MONROE COUNTY HAVE BEEN OUTLOOKED.
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THESE SWRN CWA LOCATIONS...TAPERING OFF
TOWARD SUNRISE.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINT/CLOUD/TEMP GRIDS. RAISED TEMPS
AND DEWS OVERNIGHT...AND BASICALLY CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS BY
SUNRISE...EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN KY.

UPDATE OUT IN A FEW.

AL

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)

SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
BY EARLY AFTERNOON HAD MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE WEST AND TO NEAR 70 OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WEST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL DROP
SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT AND THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL JET TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
GREATER OVER THE SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 30
PERCENT RANGE.

THE BIG QUESTION IS SATURDAY AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE.  AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST...A COOL FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO TENNESSEE. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS HOW FAR
SOUTH AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.

THE NAM TAKES THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND
DELAYING THE BIG PUSH OF DRIER AIR UNTIL THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
BELIEVE THE NAM IS A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH AND GFS A LITTLE SLOW IN
BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. WILL LEAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
THE NORTH SHOULD BE DRY. THE NORTH WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE SUN THAN
THE SOUTH.

SCHOLZ

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE ISSUE WILL BE WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY
BECOMES STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TENNESSEE BUT MANY
TIMES THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE FAR SOUTH. WE WILL HOLD ONTO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH
THE LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS, NAM, AND
SREF ENSEMBLES KEEP PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WE WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA DRY
SUNDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE.

MAV AND MET FORECAST NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE USED A BLEND WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING WILL
BUILD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MID RANGE GFS AND ECMWF
DO SHOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE GFS BRINGS THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
WE WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS.

HAVE USED THE GFS ENSEMBLE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WHICH INDICATE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. --JA

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1007 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-200830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
907 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006 /1007 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT. MOST
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A LINE FROM OHIO COUNTY DOWN TO MONROE
COUNTY IN KENTUCKY. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE BIGGEST THREATS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

AL

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