Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
255 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...

UPPER LEVEL LOW SPAWNING THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON RESIDES NEAR DETROIT...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL JET AND
UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVING THRU THE REGION THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WILL SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS IT ALL
TRANSITS EASTWARD. HAIL AND SOME STRONG GUSTS MAY BE A CONCERN AND
THE WATCH EXTENDS THROUGH 8 PM EDT...WITH A FEW SMALL HAIL REPORTS
SO FAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE RUN OF CLOSELY PACKED SOLUTIONS. WILL GO
WITH A BLEND OF RUC AND THE NAM FOR THE SHORT TERM GRIDS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH A LESSER MID LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT EXITING TO THE EAST...DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND
LOSS OF HEATING...PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY AFTER 23Z. WILL
END PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE EVENING HOURS OF 23-01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS THE GUSTY WINDS...FOG WILL BE
UNLIKELY DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

FRIDAY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO
THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEY...WITH THE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST
STARTING THE DAY MOSTLY SUNNY. CU WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT
NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY EXPANDING THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH JET
STREAK MOVING INTO THE AREA (WITH THE FA IN THE PREFERRED LEFT EXIT
REGION)...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA A SLIGHT
CHANCE WAS ADDED...EVEN THOUGH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE MAY BE AN ISSUE.
--SCHOTT

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

PESKY UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY EXIT THE US TO THE NORTHEAST...AS
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WRN US WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL CREATE A WARM-UP
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...ALONG WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF PRECIP. SO THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES AND WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...

A WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN KANSAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM
AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY COULD GENERATE
SHWRS/STRMS ACROSS SW THIRD OF CWA AS EARLY AS FRI AFT. SPC HAS PUT
THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...SO HAVE INSERTED POPS OVER THIS AREA.
DID NOT INCLUDE THE REST OF THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT DUE TO THE LIKELY
EXAGGERATED QPF FIELD FROM GFS AND WEAKENING OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS.
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP AN MCS OVER IA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND 50+F DEWPOINTS PRESENT OVER THE
AREA...WOULD LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST. ATTM IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WOULD AFFECT MY INDIANA COUNTIES
AROUND 3AM OR LATER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO IT APPEARS THAT MOST
OF SATURDAY WOULD REMAIN DRY. MY NWRN HALF OF THE CWA IS IN A DAY3
SLIGHT RISK...AGAIN WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. ALTHOUGH
WITH ANY MCS...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER. THUS...HAVE INSERTED SLT CHC POPS ACROSS IN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...AND THEN 30 CHC POPS SUNDAY CWA-WIDE.
WILL KEEP THESE CHC POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN THAT THE FRONT
WILL STILL BE AROUND.

SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...

TAPER OFF POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW ASSUMING
THAT SOME RIDGING MAY HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. AT
THIS TIME...THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE WELL ON DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT
THE CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE PLAINS LOOKS TO APPROACH THE CWA WED NIGHT - THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME...SO WOULD THINK THAT THIS WOULD BE THE BEST CHC FOR POPS.
HOWEVER WITH Q-STNRY FRONT AROUND AND WARM AND MOIST AIR POOLING IN
FROM THE SSW...COULD EASILY HAVE SHWRS/STRMS AT TIMES FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WED DEPENDING ON THE DISTURBANCES. ALSO...SINCE THE
FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH...COULD BE CAPPED AT
TIMES...MOSTLY ON TUESDAY WHICH IS THE ONLY DRY PERIOD FROM MONDAY
NIGHT ON IN THE GRIDS. RIDGING LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF...AND IT IS IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED AT THIS TIME...SO DID NOT ALTER TOO
MUCH FROM PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...LOOKS LIKE A NICE WARM UP BY SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY (ASSUMING LOCATIONS CAN REBOUND FROM ANY
CONVECTION). UNTIL THEN...COULD BE A DECENT TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE FRONT. TEMPS ALREADY IN GRIDS LOOKED GOOD...JUST BUMPED
UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN EXTENDED. OTHERWISE...JUST A TAD ABOVE MEX
AND ENSEMBLE MOS.

AL
&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THROUGH 8PM EDT.
IN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH 8PM EDT.
&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
138 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     HAIL             BUCKNER                 38.38N 85.43W
05/18/2006  E0.25 INCH       OLDHAM             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
200 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

INZ076>079-090>092-KYZ029>043-045>049-054>057-066-067-182000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-HARRISON IN-
FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-
HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-
ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-
NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-MARION KY-
BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT WASHINGTON...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...
SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...
LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...
BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...
LIBERTY...STANFORD
200 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY MAINLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM LOUISVILLE TO BARDSTOWN TO LIBERTY THROUGH 4 PM EDT.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS SHOULD STORMS INTENSIFY.

DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
304 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S BEDFORD             38.54N 85.32W
05/18/2006                   TRIMBLE            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ACROSS HWY 42 NEAR TANDY FARMS. ESTIMATED WINDS
            40-50MPH.

&&

AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
308 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMPBELLSBURG           38.53N 85.21W
05/18/2006                   HENRY              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN CAMPBELLSBURG...NEW
            CASTLE AND PENDLETON. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 40-50MPH.

&&

AL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

KYZ035>037-182015-
FRANKLIN-HARRISON-SCOTT-
313 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

...GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FALMOUTH TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF WILLIAMSTOWN TO 9 MILES WEST OF
GEORGETOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR GEORGETOWN BY 325 PM EDT.
  NEAR CYNTHIANA BY 335 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 125 AND
136.

JA