Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Louisville, KY

April 16, 2006Butler County, Warren County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 16, 2006, 10:46 AM CDT for Butler County, Warren County, Kentucky. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 16, 2006, 10:46 AM CDT (15:46 UTC)
Expired: Apr 16, 2006, 11:15 AM CDT
In force: 29 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Butler County, KY, Warren County, KY

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1349 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 205 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 203 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KLMK 161546
SVRLMK
KYC031-227-161615-
/O.NEW.KLMK.SV.W.0182.060416T1546Z-060416T1615Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1046 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
  NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 1044 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL.  THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SUGAR GROVE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WOODBURY BY 1055 AM CDT
  RIVERSIDE BY 1100 AM CDT
  RICHARDSVILLE BY 1105 AM CDT
  ROUNDHILL BY 1110 AM CDT

LAT...LON 3714 8682 3706 8680 3703 8668 3714 8638
      3730 8649

$$

AL

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KLMK 161555
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1155 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

KYC031-227-161615-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-060416T1615Z/
BUTLER KY-WARREN KY-
1055 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WARREN AND SOUTHERN BUTLER COUNTIES...

AT 1050 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SUGAR GROVE...OR ABOUT 16 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BOWLING GREEN....MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RIVERSIDE AND RICHARDSVILLE BY 1100 AM CDT
  ROUNDHILL BY 1110 AM CDT

IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND 
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A 
SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3714 8682 3706 8680 3703 8668 3714 8638
      3730 8649

$$

AL

000 
WWUS53 KLMK 161613
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1212 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

KYC031-227-161622-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-060416T1615Z/
BUTLER KY-WARREN KY-
1112 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN WARREN AND
SOUTHERN BUTLER COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 1115 AM CDT...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.

NO REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. IF YOU WITNESSED 
HAIL OR STRONG WINDS PLEASE PASS YOUR REPORT ON TO THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR LOCAL MEDIA.

LAT...LON 3714 8682 3706 8680 3703 8668 3714 8638
      3730 8649

$$

13

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 16, 2:53 AM CDT, 7 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 16, 2:53 AM CDT, 7 hours 53 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 AM EDT SUN APRIL 16 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER IA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TODAY...
IT IS FCST TO DROP SE INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. IMPRESSIVE LIS AND CAPE VALUES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
WE AGREE WITH SPC DAY ONE DISCUSSION FOR POTENTIAL MCS FEATURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH WEST LATE TODAY AND MOVING ESE ACROSS THE
FA DURING TONIGHT. LATEST HPC QPF TRENDS LOOK GOOD TOO AND WILL BE
USED FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WI THE ABOVE DISCUSSION IN MIND...UPPED THE POPS ACROSS THE FA
FOR TONIGHT. HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF FA. A BIT
OF A PROBLEM WITH MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY...DUE TO TIMING ISSUES WITH
A THREAT OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED DEVELOPING MCS TO OUR NORTHWEST
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. PERSISTENCE WITH THE CURRENT FCST  TEMP
TRENDS SEEMED BEST. --21

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

WEAKENING UPR TROF WILL BE CROSSING OH VALLEY EARLY MONDAY ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT SFC LOW PROPAGATING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING
ROUGHLY E-W. STILL COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHWRS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSTMS MONDAY MORNING OVER NERN AND ERN SECTIONS OF FCST AREA. THESE
WILL PUSH EWD QUICKLY AS 925 MB RH SUGGESTS LOW-LVL CLOUDS WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTN. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM N TO S AS
COOLER DRIER AIR INFILTRATES IN FROM THE N.

PLEASANT SPRING WX EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKY AND AFTN
TEMPS STILL A LTL ABV NORMAL...BUT NOT THE VERY WARM TEMPS OF THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS SIMILAR IN EVOLUTION OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY. WEAK WARM ADVECTION...BROAD UPR-LVL DIVERGENCE...MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN AND DECENT 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR TO
CURRENT GRIDS. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES...SHOULD SEE A BRIEF RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

MAIN FCST PROBLEM THEN CONCERNS EVOLUTION OF UPR LOW PROGGED ACRS
NRN PLAINS AND UPR MS VALLEY MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK...AND ITS
EFFECTS ON KY AND SRN IN. 00 UTC RUNS OF OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR KEEPING A CLOSED VORTEX TO OUR N...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK S/WVS EMBEDDED WITHIN WLY TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT S OF
VORTEX OVR MID MS VALLEY AND OH AND/OR TN VALLEYS. GFS AND ECMWF
INFER A BROAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OCRS LWR OH VLY ON SRN END OF
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT. SUCH A SCENARIO SHOULD PROVIDE A CHC OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS ABOUT IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME ACRS OH/TN VALLEYS...WITH TIMING AND EXACT LATITUDE OF PRECIP
IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...00 UTC CANADIAN MODEL (GEM)
SHOWS UPR LOW WEAKENING AND SAGGING SEWD INTO OH VALLEY LATE WEEK IN
CONTRAST TO OTHER MODELS. THUS...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO CURRENT
PRECIP GRIDS AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO ALLOW A BREAK IN PRECIP CHCS
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY SYSTEM AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE WEEK.  --TWF

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 16, 10:30 AM CDT, 16 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1130 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-170830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1130 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 /1030 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH PEA-SIZE HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE
BIGGEST THREATS.

AS THE AIR WARMS UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THIS
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO INDIANA
TONIGHT...AN ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND EAST
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
DAMAGE...HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LATE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF KENTUCKY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES ADVANCE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEND ANY
REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LOUISVILLE.

AL

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 16, 8:19 AM CDT, 2 hours 27 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
919 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

INZ089-161430-
PERRY IN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TELL CITY
819 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

...STRONG STORM TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY...

A STORM WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL..AND TORRENTIAL RAIN
WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY BETWEEN 820 AM AND
850 AM CDT. PEOPLE AROUND BRISTOW AND SASSAFRAS AS WELL AS
TRAVELERS ON INTERSTATE 64 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 66 AND 78 WILL BE
MOST IMPACTED BY THIS STORM.

13

Special weather statement, Apr 16, 8:40 AM CDT, 2 hours 6 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
940 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

KYZ026-161445-
OHIO KY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BEAVER DAM
840 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

...STRONG STORM IN OHIO COUNTY...

A STORM WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL
CROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO COUNTY THROUGH 910 AM CDT. PEOPLE
AROUND HARTFORD...BEAVER DAM...AND ROSINE WILL FEEL THE GREATEST
EFFECTS FROM THIS STORM...AS WILL TRAVELERS ALONG THE WESTERN
KENTUCKY PARKWAY AND NATCHER PARKWAY IN OHIO COUNTY.

13

Local storm report, Apr 16, 9:17 AM CDT, 1 hour 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1017 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 AM     HAIL             CANEYVILLE              37.42N 86.49W
04/16/2006  M0.75 INCH       GRAYSON            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LDATTI

Special weather statement, Apr 16, 9:49 AM CDT, 57 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1049 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

KYZ061-161600-
BUTLER KY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MORGANTOWN
949 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

...STRONG STORM IN BUTLER COUNTY...

A STORM CAPABLE OF DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL
HAIL WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS OF BUTLER COUNTY BETWEEN
950 AM CDT AND 1015 AM CDT. ROCHESTER AND TRAVELERS ALONG ROUTE 70
WEST OF MORGANTOWN WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

13

Special weather statement, Apr 16, 10:38 AM CDT, 8 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1138 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

KYZ061>063-071-074-161645-
BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-WARREN KY-BARREN KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...
MUNFORDVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...GLASGOW
1038 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

...LINE OF STRONG STORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING WILL BE FOUND FROM BUTLER COUNTY EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN
HART AND NORTHERN BARREN COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 AM CDT. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE
RICHARDSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...PARK CITY...AND MAMMOTH CAVE NATIONAL PARK.

13

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 16, 8:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Butler	11 min
Apr 16, 9:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Grayson	29 min
Apr 16, 11:03 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Edmonson	27 min
Apr 16, 11:10 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Barren, Hart	20 min
Apr 16, 11:40 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Barren, Edmonson, Hart	35 min
Apr 16, 11:51 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair	24 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.