Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
841 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO REPLACE THE ONE THAT
EXPIRES AT 9 PM EDT (#162). OTHER WATCH (#165) CONTINUES UNTIL 11
PM EDT. BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM NEAR
PAH TO FTK TO JUST N OF LEX. SFC LOW NOW OVER FAR NE ARKANSAS
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SE...THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE SLY INFLOW
INTO STORMS OVER LMK CWA...AND ALONG WITH BACKING SFC WINDS KEEP
THE ASSOC TORNADO THREAT GOING WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS. MOST
INTENSE STORMS AT THIS TIME ARE OVER ANDERSON COUNTY...AND EASTERN
OHIO COUNTY. STORMS NEAR FTK APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF SFC GUST FRONT
AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ELEVATED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS OVER NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

CS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 543 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006)

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...

SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF TN AND HAVE DISTINCT RIGHT MOVING
CHARACTERISTICS...AND NOW THE OUR MAIN FOCUS IS THE LINE OF STORMS
THAT ARE FORMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND
POTENTIAL GIBSON COUNTY KY STORM JUST PRODUCED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM IN ENTERING AIR THAT HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER...SO THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE. LARGE HAIL IS STILL A THREAT WITH
OPTIMUM WBZS. DEW POINTS DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT AND THINGS WILL
QUIET DOWN BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
JDG

LONG TERM(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PD...MAINLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY TUESDAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLO WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY...BUT A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL INHIBIT
RAPID RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW A
TROUGH TO MOVE EAST THROUGH OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. MODIFIED GULF AIR
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDER WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTED BY HPC. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK
HOWEVER AND MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...SO NO COLD AIR TO FOLLOW WITH
CONTD OSLO WARMING THRU FRI. --DK

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
500 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-080830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
600 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006 /500 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
TWO STATE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. BOTH THE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THESE DEVELOPING STORMS
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR BROADCAST MEDIA. INFORMATION MAY
ALSO BE FOUND ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

--21

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