Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
10 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

.MORNING UPDATE:
WILL LOWER POPS INTO CHC CAT INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS. ALSO WILL
GO WI PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND UP MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 80 NORTH
TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN.

REMAINDER OF FCST THE SAME

PREVIOUS FCST DISCUSSIONS BELOW:

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

AT 06Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. THE
FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM EVV TO SDF TO JUST NORTH OF LEX AND MOVING
NORTH.

FAIRLY COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL OPEN AND DROP
SOUTHEAST AS A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES. A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THIS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA WILL DROP INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI BY EVENING. THE FORE MENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE (LIS: MINUS 9 AND CAPES OF 1000 J/KG).
EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AND DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG THE LINE WILL BE LARGE
HAIL BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY 09Z.

WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE CWFA. WE WILL MENTION UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE SOME 30 DEGREES COOLER TONIGHT. --JA

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER
BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL LAG A FEW HOURS BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE STATE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY AND A NORTHERLY WIND WILL BRING IN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR DURING THE DAY. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO FALL FROM 16C TO 1C FROM 18Z FRI TO 18Z SATURDAY.

SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE SIMILAR
IN FORECASTING LOWS FROM 30 TO 35 ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. PLANTS THAT ARE SENSITIVE TO COLD
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE PROTECTED. UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE FROM THOSE OF SATURDAY...BUT
STILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

A NICE SPRING PERIOD EXPECTED WITH AMPLE SUN AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY...BUT A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL INHIBIT
RAPID RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH 70 BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW A
TROUGH TO MOVE EAST THROUGH OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. MODIFIED GULF AIR
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SO WILL ADD LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDER WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK HOWEVER...AND NO COLD AIR
WILL FOLLOW...AND SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH THURSDAY.

JSD

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1155 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-080830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1055 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006 /1155 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE TWO STATE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. BOTH THE LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THESE DEVELOPING STORMS
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR BROADCAST MEDIA. INFORMATION MAY
ALSO BE FOUND ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
332 PM EDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     HAIL             GEORGETOWN              38.30N 85.97W
04/07/2006  M2.50 INCH       FLOYD              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
336 PM EDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             NEW ALBANY              38.30N 85.83W
04/07/2006  M1.75 INCH       FLOYD              IN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
343 PM EDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     HAIL             MEMPHIS                 38.48N 85.77W
04/07/2006  M2.00 INCH       CLARK              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
0345 PM EDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME(EDT)  ...EVENT...       ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...    ....MAG....       ...COUNTY LOCATION...ST.....SOURCE...
             ..REMARKS..

0323 PM      HAIL                HARRISON COUNTY SKY     0N     0W
04/07/2006   0.88 INCH           FLOYD              IN   STORM SPOTTER

             ESTIMATED NICKEL HAIL SIZE AT EDWARDSVILLE, INDIANA OBSERVED
             BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR

MC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
350 PM EDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HAIL             CHARLESTOWN             38.45N 85.67W
04/07/2006  M0.75 INCH       CLARK              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
351 PM EDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     TORNADO          SELLERSBURG             38.39N 85.76W
04/07/2006                   CLARK              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEAR I-65

&&

MAS