Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Louisville, KY

000 
WGUS73 KLMK 230450
FFSLMK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1146 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

KYC057-171-230730-
CUMBERLAND KY-MONROE KY-
1046 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 130 AM CST FOR MONROE AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER 
MONROE AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. A 
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 
TO 1.5 INCHES IS LIKELY OVER THE WARNED AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE 
FLOODING... PARTICULARLY IN SMALL STREAMS...LOW LYING AREAS...AND 
OTHER NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3663 8597 3673 8597 3683 8579 3684 8570
      3682 8560 3684 8557 3686 8560 3686 8550
      3693 8545 3692 8526 3689 8528 3683 8523
      3663 8530

$$
CS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...

THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CENTRAL INDIANA AT MID AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RAIN AREA. HOWEVER THE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ARKANSAS.

MAIN CHALLENGES WITH TONIGHT/S FORECAST ARE TIMING THE PRECIPITATION
AND HOW HEAVY THE RAIN WILL BE. MODELS ARE GIVING THE SAME GENERAL
SOLUTION WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE ENDING OF THE RAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS HAS HANDLED THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION WELL WITH THE NAM MUCH SLOWER TO ADVANCE THE RAIN
NORTHWARD. THE GFS BRINGS A QUICK HEAVY BAND OF RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE NAM SHOWS LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
BUT KEEPS THE HIGH RH IN A LITTLE LONGER. FOR THE MOST PART PREFER
THE GFS BUT WILL SLOW THE ENDING OF THE RAIN A FEW HOURS...BLENDING
HERE A LITTLE TOWARD THE NAM.

HEAVY RAIN STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME UPPER LEVEL JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION BRINGS UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALSO INCREASES OVER THE AREA AFTER 00Z. CURRENT PLACEMENT OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD WATCH LOOK GOOD AND WILL LEAVE PLACE. WILL ALSO
KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...EXPECT ADDED LIFT FROM
JETS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO HELP TRIGGER THUNDER.

OTHER PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION. RAIN
SHOULD END OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS BEFORE MORNING AND WILL END
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. WILL ALSO ALLOW CLOUDS
TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...REACHING
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST BY 00Z.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT THEN RISE ONLY INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 40S ON MONDAY.

SCHOLZ

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER WE WILL
SEE BACKING WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR EXPECT AS THE COOL FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A
ZONAL OR SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES CLOSED LOW WITH THE GFS
BRINGING THE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE UNITED STATES WHILE THE EUROPEAN
AND CANADIAN MODELS WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION OF 5 TO 8 FOR
TEMPERATURES AND 8 TO 10 FOR PRECIPITATION.

WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND POPS ONLY AROUND 30% WE WILL LEAVE THIS
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

WILL FOLLOW THE GFS ENSEMBLE AVERAGES.  - JA

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SRN KY.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1015 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-230930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1015 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

RAINFALL STORM TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LESS THEN AN INCH ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA UPWARDS TO TWO TO THREE INCHES AND LOCALLY MORE
ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES
OF HEAVY RAIN OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LOUISVILLE. USE E-SPOTTER ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

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