Wind Advisory 15, NWS Elko, NV

000 
WWUS75 KLKN 100938
NPWLKN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
238 AM PDT MON APR 10 2006

...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY...

.WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

NVZ033-101045-
/O.CAN.KLKN.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-060410T1100Z/
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WEST WENDOVER
238 AM PDT MON APR 10 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ELKO HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND
THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 MPH.

$$
RCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1140 PM PDT SUN APR 9 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS. A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL COMMENCE ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...JUST ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR WENDOVER AS SFC GRADIENT
BTWN ELKO AND SLC IS NOW 10 MB AND WILL BE SUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS ALREADY AT CRITERIA AND WILL SEE HOW CONDITIONS PLAY OUT FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  FEHRN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (320 PM)...A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS. THE FIRST WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL NV TONIGHT. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS NORTH AND CHC CENTRAL. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AS WAVE MOVES THRU THE AREA
RATHER QUICKLY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5500 FEET. THIS
FIRST WAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING. 2ND SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO NRN AND CNTRL NV MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY
NEXT UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL SINK SWD ALONG THE 132W MERIDIAN.
THIS WILL PUMP UP RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN SO BEGAN TO TAPER OFF
POPS BEGINNING TUE WITH ANY THREAT OF SHOWERS MOSTLY OVER WITH BY
WED. CEC

.LONG TERM....WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
BEGINNING TO COME INTO FOCUS...AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE GFS
MODEL IS TRENDING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HOLD THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE INLAND PUSH BEGINNING FRIDAY. GFS
HAS SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION BY AT LEAST 6 HOURS...HOWEVER IT
IS STILL A FEW HOUR FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. ONE OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE IS IN RESPECT TO THE TRACK THE LOW
TAKES AS IT MOVES EAST INTO CA. EARLIER SOLUTIONS TOOK THE LOW
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE THAT
THE LOW WILL NOW TAKE A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK FROM LA TOWARD
ELY. AS MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE THAT THE INLAND PUSH WILL BE A
LITTLE LATER...HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AND PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. IF MODEL CONTINUITY REMAINS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
BACK OFF ON POPS EVEN FURTHER AS BULK OF PRECIP NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT. ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST WERE TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES...AND UP
THE SNOW LEVEL A FEW HUNDRED FEET WED AND THURS. ROOD
&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE HUMBOLDT RIVER IN NORTHERN
NEVADA. THE GAGE AT RYNDON...JUST EAST OF ELKO...HAS A FLOOD STAGE
OF 8.0 FEET. THE WATER LEVEL IS CURRENTLY AT 7.3 FEET AND EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY RECEDE...HOWEVER IT IS RECEDING SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST. DOWNSTREAM IN ELKO MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AS THE
WATER LEVEL IS NEAR 8.0 FEET...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. FROM
ELKO...WEST...DOWNSTREAM THROUGH COMUS THE RIVER REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. AT CARLIN AND PALISADE THE CREST HAS PASSED AND THE RIVER IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RECEDE. THE CREST IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN
PALISADE AND BATTLE MOUNTAIN. AS SUCH...BATTLE MOUNTAIN AND AREAS
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM TO COMUS CAN EXPECT THE RIVER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY RISE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ROOD
&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY REFLECT EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES ON THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM ELKO TO
WINNEMUCCA AND ON THE MARYS RIVER AT TWIN BUTTES NEAR DEETH.

WIND ADVISORY NVZ033 UNTIL 4 AM PDT / 5 AM MDT MONDAY MORNING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
311 PM PDT SUN APR 9 2006

NVZ030>032-036-101200-
HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES-
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
311 PM PDT SUN APR 9 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEVADA

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM ELKO TO
WINNEMUCCA AND ALSO ON THE MARYS RIVER AT DEETH. FOR MORE DETAILS
PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCT RNOFLSLKN OR WGUS85 KLKN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HUMBOLDT RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF CARLIN.
FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCT RNOFLSLKN OR WGUS85 KLKN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CEC