Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
330 AM PDT FRI JUN 9 2006

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA TODAY. MOST AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BE DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
WITH AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP SINCE MIDNIGHT AT ELY.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST INTO
UTAH THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL JET...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE GREAT
BASIN LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THIS
EVENING. MODELS HAD BEEN KEEPING THE GREAT BASIN DRY SATURDAY...
HOWEVER LATEST RUN KEEPS 50-55KT JET AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS UP TO 10
PERCENT OR SO OVER THIS AREA SATURDAY...HOWEVER MAY HAVE TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS IF MODELS SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS JET AND INSTABILITY.
ROOD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG
SOUTH OFF CA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TO GIVE DRY AND
WARMING CONDITIONS AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER AREA. AS TROUGH
REACHES MAX AMPLIFICATION...MAY SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TOUCH OF A
FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN CWFA MONDAY. INTEND TO
TRIM POPS BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY REGENERATES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERN BRANCH OF JET PULLS NORTH AND MERGES
WITH NORTHERN FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST NV. STILL THINK CONVECTION SHOULD
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN NV MONDAY AS WELL. GFS HAS LOW BEGINNING TO
EJECT TUESDAY AND MEAN 100KT UPPER JET FLOW CROSSES CWFA. ENOUGH
MOISTURE GETS DRAWN UP AT THAT TIME TO SPREAD CONVECTION OVER MUCH
OF THE CWFA. WILL ADJUST POPS UP A BIT OVER CENTRAL NV ON TUESDAY.
MEAN TROUGH LINGERS OVER GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
UPPER FLOW LOSES KICKER AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WED AND THUR WILL BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN NV. LW

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY...WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL VISIBILITIES TO BE
REDUCED TO 3-5SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FRIDAY...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN WHITE PINE COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN
ELKO COUNTY.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE
HUMBOLDT RIVER IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND FOR LAMOILLE CREEK NEAR
LAMOILLE.