Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
241 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2006

.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY MID-WEEK FOR A
DIMINISHING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. &&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR AND GFS ANALYSIS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
OVER SOUTHERN NV WITH WEAK ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW OVER MAJORITY OF
CWA. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF CWA ATTM.

FOR TUESDAY...MEAN 500-300MB FLOW TURNS TO THE WSW ALLOWING PWS TO
DRY SLIGHTLY TO JUST UNDER 1.00 FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH HIGHER
VALUES TO THE WEST TOWARDS RNO AND SOUTH TOWARDS LAS. 700MB
CONVERGENCE OVER NW HUMBOLDT AND NRN WHITE PINE COUNTY...HIGHEST
CAPES TO THE SOUTH (400-500 NYE COUNTY)...700MB THETA E RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NV WITH HIGHEST VALUES SOUTH.
GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH SCT POPS SOUTH AND
EAST...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY. OVERNIGHT GFS
BRINGS STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE TRACKING
IT INTO NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SITUATION...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE SCENARIOS WHICH GFS HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD RECENTLY HAVE AMOUNTED TO LITTLE OR NOTHING IN
THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WX. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MEAN ZONAL U/L FLOW CONTINUES OVER NRN PORTIONS OF
CWA BRINGING PWS DOWN ANOTHER .10 FOR HUMBOLDT/ELKO COUNTIES.
700MB THETA E RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE RUBIES. GFS HAS CAPES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN SOUTHERN ZONES AND HAS INTRODUCED 200-300J/KG
VALUES EAST OF THE RUBIES. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE RUBIES LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AGAIN FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE...NOT MAKING ANY SWEEPING CHANGES. RA

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEEPEN ALONG THE PAC NW COAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING
A DRIER SWLY FLOW TO NWRN NV TO END THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CNTRL AND ERN NV TO CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF TSTMS. UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN BEGINS TO SHEAR NEWD
ACROSS THE PAC NW DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN.
CEC
&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS REFLECT EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.