Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
300 PM PDT WED JUL 5 2006

.SYNOPSIS...FOR THIS EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LIMITING THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR EASTERN NEVADA. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
WESTWARD AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWARD.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN PORTION
OF CWA AS A SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PASSES OVER...ALONG
WITH AN EXITING H3 JET MAX OF 55KTS MOVING SW-NE JUST WEST OF
NEVADA. WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN
NORTHERN EUREKA AND ELKO COUNTIES. DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NEVADA THURSDAY...
REMAINING OVER ONLY EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THOSE AREAS. ROOD

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...LONG RANGE MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE FLOW
IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NV. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AS GOING
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GREAT SHAPE. BEST CHANCES FOR MOIST
THUNDERSTORMS IN WHITE PINE AND NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTIES FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. PW VALUES IN THOSE REGIONS OVER 3/4 INCH FOR THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN TO PUSH FARTHER NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH PLACEMENT OF VORT FEATURES AND MOVEMENT OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE MOISTURE BOUNDARIES
WILL SETUP.

MONDAY COULD SEE MOIST CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CWA AS
MOISTURE FAIRLY WELL ROOTED WITH PW VALUES NEAR 3/4 INCH MOST
LOCATIONS. MOISTURE BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY AS PATTERN BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE SHIFTING UPPER HIGH EAST AND ALLOWING U/L LOW
OFF THE PAC NW COAST TO BEGIN TO DIG AND PRESS TOWARD THE OREGON
COAST...MEANWHILE THERMAL GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH WIND SPEEDS/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS STARTING TUESDAY. GFS SHOWS
THERMAL BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE SIERRAS WEDNESDAY UNTIL MAIN
TROUGH COMES ASHORE THURSDAY MORNING PUSHING BOUNDARY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOULD BE A BUSY MIDWEEK WEATHER PATTERN. RA

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS REFLECT EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.