Red Flag Warning 33, NWS Elko, NV

000 
WWUS85 KLKN 060427
RFWLKN

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
927 PM PDT TUE SEP 5 2006


NVZ452-454-455-060530-
/O.CAN.KLKN.FW.W.0033.000000T0000Z-060906T0700Z/
ELKO COUNTY PLUS LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES NORTH OF I-80-
CENTRAL LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES-WHITE PINE COUNTY-
927 PM PDT TUE SEP 5 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ELKO HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 452...454 AND 455 FOR THIS EVENING
FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS/LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE EVENING.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE WEATHER CREWS IN
THESE AREAS OF THE RED FLAG WARNING CANCELLATION.

$$

AWG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
250 PM PDT MON SEP 4 2006

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NEVADA WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION. WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...H5 RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER GREAT BASIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO CWA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WITH LIS ZERO TO -2...GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND GOOD SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WILL BRING DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA DURING NEXT 2
DAYS IN ERN HALF OF CWA. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER
DAY IN THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA AS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS DRY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME
MAX READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. WEAK SHORT MOVES INTO
NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY...BUT WEAKENS FURTHER WITH MAIN EFFECT IS TO
SLIGHTLY PUSH THE INSTABILITY A LITTLE EASTWARD. HARMER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GFS CONTINUES WITH
TREND OF SPLIT FLOW WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN OREGON/NRN CALIFORNIA
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS INTO SRN NEVADA. UPPER AND SHORTWAVE
TEND TO BE LITTLE STRONGER WITH NAM-WRF THAN GFS BUT BOTH STILL
HAVE MAIN 700MB CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS ENCNTRL NV WITH LOWER LIS
ERN THIRD NEAR UTAH BORDER. HIGHEST THETA-E AND PW VALUES POSITIONED
IN ERN PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL SO HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF KEEPING
POPS IN ERN ZONES WITH MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WORDING RATHER
THAN DRY. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO UTAH FRIDAY...WEAKNESS IN
FLOW HAS GFS SHOWING STRONG SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW EJECTING SOUTHEAST
WITH COLD FRONT TOWARD THE NORTHERN CWA ZONES ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CURRENTLY TRENDING THIS WAY...SO HAVE KEPT
THE GOING TREND OF MOVING POPS SOUTH AND EAST WITH FRONT. NO BIG
CHANGES SINCE THIS IS STILL FAR OUT INTO DAY 7 BUT WILL AT LEAST
DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. SLA

.AVIATION....WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SFC WIND GUSTS TO
40KTS AND LOCAL AREAS OF WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING.
BLOWING ASH AND DUST COULD CREATE AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE
ELKO AIRPORT AT TIMES...BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.RED FLAG WARNINGS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN FIRE
 WEATHER ZONES 452...454...455...AND 457.
.FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE
 SAME ZONES.