Red Flag Warning 23, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
201 AM PDT TUE AUG 15 2006

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR COOL NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEK. A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS OVER EASTERN NEVADA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MID WEEK WILL SEE
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF NEVADA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KLRX 88D RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWING ISOLATED TSTORMS CONTINUING OVER XTRM NE ELKO COUNTY THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LF REGION OF 70KT JET PUSHING ACROSS ERN NV
INTO UTAH. TSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NE...INTO UTAH
AND SE ID BY DAWN. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY TSTORMS TODAY...
MAINLY NORTH OF I80...HOWEVER...WITH PW/S AROUND 0.50 INCHES BETWEEN
ELKO...AUSTIN/EUREKA...EXPECT SOME ISOLD DRY TSTORMS IN CNTRL NV
ALSO. WITH LI/S APPROACHING -1 TO -2 ACROSS NRN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND
PW/S AROUND 0.70 INCHES...CONCERNED WITH WIDELY SCT TO SCT DRY
TSTORM COVERAGE WELL NORTH OF WMC AND WEST OF MCDERMITT NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER AS 50KT JET APPROACHES NW NV FROM NRN CALIF. KEPT LAL
OF 6 FOR FIRE WX PURPOSES...HOWEVER...NOT A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING TOMORROW IN NRN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. OTHER AREAS ALONG...AND NORTH OF...I80 WILL SEE
ONLY A FEW DRY TSTORMS WITH LACK OF U/L JET SUPPORT.  TRUDEL

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. H5 LOW PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES.
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH TROF DRY AND STABLE OVER NEVADA THROUGH
FRIDAY. GFS HINTING AT AIRMASS DESTABILIZING ACROSS MOST ZONES OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN FORECAST...EXCEPT
SOUTHERN ZONES. NEXT UPSTREAM TROF FORECASTED TO SWING ACROSS CWA
MONDAY DRIVING INSTABILITY OUT OF THE REGION. HARMER
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS FIRE WX DAY SETTING
UP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG U/L LOW PRESSURE...NOW OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...DIGGING SE INTO THE CNTRL AND NW PACIFIC COAST.
GFS AND NAM SHOWING 500MB WINDS OF 50KTS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NW NV...THIS TRANSLATES TO 35 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS AROUND
4500 FEET WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. ALSO...GFS SHOWING
PW/S LOWERING TO 0.20 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE SIERRAS. BASICALLY...A SPARK IN THE WRONG
PLACE COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A VERY SERIOUS SITUATION ACROSS NRN
NV WITH THOSE TYPES OF WINDS AND VERY LOW RH/S. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE RH/S DIP BELOW 5 PERCENT IN A LARGE PORTION OF NRN AND CNTRL
NV MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY DUE TO THE FIRE CONCERN ALONE...AND THE MODELS CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO SETTING UP THE LAST FEW DAYS. KEPT THE WATCH
OUT FOR ELKO COUNTY AND CNTRL LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES...00Z GFS SHOWING BOTH THOSE AREAS ON THE FRINGE OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS. HOWEVER...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ELKO COUNTY
(ZONE 452) UPGRADED LATER TODAY TO A RED FLAG WARNING. WIND ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE ALSO A CONCERN FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS 90 KT JET
BRUSHES THE NW PORTION OF THE STATE.  OTHERWISE...KEPT TEMPS AS IS
AND LOWERED WEDNESDAY DEWPOINTS AND RHS SIGNIFICANTLY.  TRUDEL

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 451 FROM
11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FWZ 452-454
FOR WEDNESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.