Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
902 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

.UPDATE...
LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALED NO CAP AND PW VALUE UP TO 1.9
INCHES. LCH CAPE VALUE WAS NEAR 2400 J/KG WITH A CAP THIS EVENING.
NO CAP OFF OF LIX SOUNDING SHOULD EQUATE AROUND 3000 J/KG. LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEPER AT LIX THAN LCH. IN ADDITION...12 KNOTS AT 850MB
AND WNW AT 500 MB REVEALED WEAK SHEAR BUT VEERING WITH HEIGHT.
WITH SVR WATCH OUT WITH GOOD BOX PLACEMENT...HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 226 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006)

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA HAD
MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE PCWA
AND DEW POINTS NEARING 70F IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
CONVECTION HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED ... BUT HAS BEGUN TO THE EAST.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE CAP WEAKENS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-091230-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
1100 AM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
643 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

LAZ040-090016-
ST TAMMANY-
643 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHEAST ST TAMMANY PARISH...

AT 630 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EDEN ISLE AND EAST LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A FEW
MOTORISTS REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE TWIN SPAN APPROACHING THE
NORTHSHORE. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT 15 MPH. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED JUST SOUTH OF
SLIDELL THROUGH 715 PM.

PERSONS IN AND AROUND THE MENTIONED AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR
THIS STORM.

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