Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST TEXAS. EXTENSIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS IS
LEADING TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THIS MORNING. MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
THANKFULLY WE DONT STILL HAVE THE 603 M2/S2 0-3KM SR HELICITY THAT
WE DID YESTERDAY MORNING AT LIX. THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO HALLOWEEN LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
MILD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
RETURN FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  49  71  45 /  80   5   0   0
BTR  74  50  71  47 /  80   5   0   0
MSY  79  55  71  52 /  90   5   0   0
GPT  77  51  71  47 / 100   5   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR LAZ034-LAZ035-LAZ036-
     LAZ037-LAZ038-LAZ039-LAZ046-LAZ047-LAZ048-LAZ049-LAZ050.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ530-GMZ550-
     GMZ555-GMZ570-GMZ575.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MSZ068-MSZ069-MSZ070-
     MSZ071.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ530-GMZ550-
     GMZ555-GMZ570-GMZ575.

&&

25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
541 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-281100-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
541 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE SQUALL
LINE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE.

RAINFALL...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE
HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS.

MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
AND TIDAL LAKES FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...