Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
313 AM CDT SAT SEP 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING RETURN FLOW WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EVIDENT
TO OUR WEST IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR PCWA...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THEN
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WE CAN EXPECT RIDGING ALOFT TO SLIDE
INTO THE GULF COAST. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK
AND BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. ALSO OF NOTE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY MIDWEEK. THIS COULD BRING
TIDES UP BY NEXT WEEKEND IF THE PATTERN PERSISTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  66  89  66 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  86  66  89  67 /  20  10  10  10
MSY  86  68  89  72 /  20  10  10  10
GPT  84  64  86  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1117 AM CDT SAT SEP 30 2006

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-011630-
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1117 AM CDT SAT SEP 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN
THE PARISHES ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AND THE METRO BATON ROUGE
AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS UPWARDS TO 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
GULF WEDNESDY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE TIDES TO
RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES DURING
THAT PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. MARINE AND COASTAL
INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS IN THE UPCOMING DAYS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1254 PM CDT SAT SEP 30 2006

LAZ034>036-046>048-301845-
EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-IBERVILLE-POINTE COUPEE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-
1254 PM CDT SAT SEP 30 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING BATON ROUGE AREA...

AT 148 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRENGTHENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EXTENDING FROM JUST
WEST OF NEW ROADS...TO JUST WEST OF GROSSE TETE...TO JUST EAST OF
BUTTE LA ROSE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH A ST. FRANCISVILLE TO JUST WEST OF PORT
ALLEN AND BRUSLY TO BAYOU SORREL LINE BY 130 PM...AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF BATON ROUGE INCLUDING RYAN AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN AROUND
140 PM.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ARE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORMS
PASS.

22

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION TO ARRIVAL TIMES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1254 PM CDT SAT SEP 30 2006

LAZ034>036-046>048-301845-
EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-IBERVILLE-POINTE COUPEE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-
1254 PM CDT SAT SEP 30 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING BATON ROUGE AREA...

AT 148 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRENGTHENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EXTENDING FROM JUST
WEST OF NEW ROADS...TO JUST WEST OF GROSSE TETE...TO JUST EAST OF
BUTTE LA ROSE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH NEAR A LINE FROM JACKSON TO PORT
ALLEN...BRUSLY AND LSU...TO PLAQUEMINE...TO BAYOU SORREL BETWEEN
1220 AND 1235 PM...AND NEAR A ZACHARY...BAKER...RYAN AIRPORT...JUST
EAST OF DOWNTOWN...TO GARDERE LINE AROUND 140 PM.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ARE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORMS
PASS.

22