Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
223 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THERE WAS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVING WESTWARD. THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION SPREAD AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION WAS
DEVELOPING PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE
BATON ROUGE AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE AREA OF GREATEST
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WE COULD SEE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO TONIGHT AND ANOTHER DAY OF
INCREASED ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LESSEN CHANCES
FOR PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ALSO WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO
THE MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS WESTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  92  73  93 /  30  50  20  30
BTR  75  91  74  93 /  30  50  20  30
MSY  76  91  77  93 /  30  50  20  30
GPT  75  91  76  92 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-061200-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IS DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS...THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN
CAPABLE OF CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG SUNDAY AND PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.