Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS
WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO LOW SCT POPS. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE MODELS STILL INDICATE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS A WEAK UPPER LOW OR
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHILE KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES. THE RIDGE
PATTERN ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO BECOME REESTABLISHED BY THE START OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER
ATLANTIC BASIN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOW SCT CAT AT BEST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS T.S. CHRIS...THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE
HAVING A TOUGH TIME MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE...BUT STILL REMAINS
A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CUBAN PENINSULA. IF THE SYSTEM IS ABLE
TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY ONCE IT EMERGES INTO THE SE GULF...THE
TRACK THEN CARRIES THE SYSTEM TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS NEVER EXCEEDING
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE ONLY INFLUENCE FOR THE LOCAL AREA
MAY BE SOME INCREASED WIND AND SWELL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM MOVES WESTWARD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  96  73  93  74 /  20  10  40  30
BTR  96  75  94  76 /  20  10  40  30
MSY  94  78  92  78 /  30  20  50  30
GPT  94  76  92  77 /  30  20  50  30
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1145 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-050030-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
1145 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
250 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

MSZ082-042030-
JACKSON-
250 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHEAST JACKSON COUNTY...

AT 250 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST OF WADE OR NORTH OF MOSS POINT.
THIS THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND WILL
AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND ESCATAWPA AND OCEAN SPRINGS THROUGH 330
PM. AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THIS HEAVY RAINFALL.

SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED.

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