Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
238 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL MIDWEST HIGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST, ARRIVING ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY MORNING. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY OF THIS
COOL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHOVE MORE STABLE AIR SOUTHWARD AND THUS
PERTURB THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

FURTHER UP, A SUBTROPICAL JET WILL STREAM WEST-SOUTHWEST OUT OF
SOUTH TEXAS TO ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE RATHER CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THIS JET CORE TO THE POLAR FRONT JET ACROSS ARKANSAS IS
DUCTING THE SHORTWAVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GULF COAST STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM MAY EXIST WITH THE GFS QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES. I BELIEVE THAT THE GFS CONVECTIVE EMULATION
(OR PARAMETERIZATION) SCHEME IS UNDERESTIMATING THE (SUBGRID)
CONVECTIVE RAIN. INSTEAD, EXCESSIVE GRID-SCALE (OR STABLE) RAIN IS
BEING GENERATED. AT PRESENT, I AM USING A RESIDUAL (STABLE RAIN
MINUS CONVECTIVE RAIN) IN AN ATTEMPT TO DELINEATE THE RAIN AREAS.
HOPEFULLY, THE NEGATIVE AREAS WILL BE THE LOCATION FOR CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM LIKELY TO RETURN ON
SATURDAY, AS THE FLUCTUATING HIGH CONTINUES TO PERTURB THE WEST-TO-
EAST STATIONARY FRONT MERIDIONALLY. THIS NORTH-TO-SOUTH UNDULATION
(AND CONSEQUENT GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF GRAVITY WAVES
SOUTHWARD) WILL RELEASE THE BOTTLED-UP LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

TONIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, DUE
MAINLY TO THE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT GULF-AIR ADVECTION.

RAIN-COOLED AIR SHOULD KEEP SATURDAYS TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE WEKEND DUE IN PART, TO
INCREASING SWELLS OUT OF THE SOUTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY, WHERE IT STALLS AND
WASHES OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. PATCHY ADVECTION-RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  68  82  67  86 /  50  50  50  40
KBPT  67  82  68  86 /  50  50  50  40
KAEX  67  77  63  84 /  60  70  70  40
KLFT  68  82  67  85 /  60  50  50  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...AVOYELLES...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST.
     MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...AND VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
&&
TRARES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
523 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-061030-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
523 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GM...CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AND A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS SATURDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA OR WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO REQUEST THE ASSISTANCE OF STORM
SPOTTERS AND PUBLIC SAFETY OFFICIALS IN SEVERE WEATHER DETECTION
AND WARNING LATER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
529 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             17 E LEESVILLE          31.14N 92.99W
05/05/2006  M0.75 INCH       VERNON             LA   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY GAS STATION IN HICKS.

&&

MOGGED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
620 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             1 E OAKDALE             30.82N 92.64W
05/05/2006  M1.75 INCH       ALLEN              LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY OAKDALE POLICE DEPARTMENT.

&&

MOGGED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
643 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             LAKE CHARLES            30.21N 93.20W
05/05/2006  M0.75 INCH       CALCASIEU          LA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OCCURRED AT THE INTERSECTION OF I-210 AND HWY 14.

&&

MOGGED

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