Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
342 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...VERY BUSY HERE TONIGHT AND AFD WILL BE BRIEF.
WIDESPREAD RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
NORTHWARD RETREATING WARM FRONT. BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTH
LOUISIANA. SEEING A FEW SPIN UPS WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEAR COASTAL
WATERS...BUT FORTUNATELY FEATURES HAVE BEEN SHOWING A RAPID
DISSIPATION UPON MOVING ONSHORE. WIDESPREAD RAINS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AS REGION REMAINS IN A MOIST SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF MAIN MID/UPPER TROF ADVANCING THROUGH COLORADO/NEW
MEXICO.

EXTREME TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH IMPULSES COMING
THROUGH REQUIRES A CONTINUATION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HPC
SUGGESTING AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE CONTINUED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
AND WINDS STRONG BOTH OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND.

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND
COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 MILES. KINEMATICS GOOD FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY THERMODYNAMICS.

RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF
ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED
INTO TONIGHT MAINTAINING LOW CEILINGS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWSET
GULF TODAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  74  89  66 / 100  70  10  10
KBPT  80  73  89  66 / 100  70  10  10
KAEX  77  68  89  64 / 100  70  10  10
KLFT  81  74  89  66 / 100  90  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
     MARTIN...AND VERMILION.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...
     ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...
     EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER
     ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
     MARTIN...VERMILION...AND VERNON.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     ST. MARY...AND VERMILION.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...
     JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...AND TYLER.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HARDIN...JEFFERSON...AND ORANGE.

     TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HARDIN...JEFFERSON...AND ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA
     TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20
     NM TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

MARCOTTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
436 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-170945-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
436 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GM...CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER
DISTURBANCE ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. WITH THE HEAVY RAINS WILL
COME THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY...TORNADIC
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STONG SHEAR EXISTS IN THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED TODAY.