Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Lake Charles, LA

000 
WGUS74 KLCH 240453
FFSLCH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1148 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

TXC457-240458-
TYLER TX-
1148 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR TYLER COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER TYLER COUNTY...BUT THE 
IMMEDIATE THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS HAS ENDED.

LAT...LON 3102 9426 3093 9422 3083 9420 3076 9414
      3070 9414 3065 9406 3059 9409 3054 9408
      3053 9455 3094 9463 3103 9429

$$

13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
304 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHWEST WARD THROUGH NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BROUGHT SURFACE WINDS UP TO
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOUND ALONG WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENT FIELDS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GROW MORE NUMEROUS
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SPC CURRENTLY HAS
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS E TX AND PARTS OF CEN
LA...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE GOOD INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE..THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR IS ANY DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT TO INDUCE SEVERE STORMS. UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS WELL TO
THE NORTH...MID-LEVEL VORTICITY IS MINIMAL...AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IS DIMINISHING.

BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF A
NATCHEZ MS TO LAKE CHARLES LA LINE. WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...HAD TO TAKE A LOOK AT QPF. RIGHT NOW WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION...QPF
VALUES SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND ONE INCH REGION-WIDE. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE AMOUNTS AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES...WHICH IS
STILL BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

OUR REGION DRIES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER ON TAP THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. IT MOVES THROUGH
QUICKLY AS WELL...SO FAST THAT IT MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO
GATHER UP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN...SO
AT THIS TIME ONLY CARRYING SCATTERED POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE BE MVFR DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT THEY COULD GO TO IFR IN A HURRY WHEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PASS NEARBY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON TO BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THEY STILL FALL IN SCEC...SO THAT WILL BE
HEADLINED TONIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO AT OR
NEAR SCA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  82  63  83 /  60  80  10  10
KBPT  74  82  63  84 /  50  70  10  10
KAEX  70  82  60  82 /  80  50  10  10
KLFT  76  84  61  83 /  50  80  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT.

&&

ERICKSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
451 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-241000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
451 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GM...CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STORMS ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK-WEEK AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.