Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
320 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE TROF HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING
STRONG SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO GREAT LAKES
REGION. SYSTEM EXITING CWA ATTM IN THIS FLOW AND LUCKILY FLOW IS
FAST ENOUGH THAT SNOW NOT ABLE TO ACCUM AT ADV CRITERIA CONSIDERING
THERE WAS CONVECTION DRIVING MUCH OF THE PCPN. H2O SHOWING STRENGTH
OF WESTERN TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT LEADING TO COLD AIR CU AND TSRA
ALONG THE COAST. CONVECTION AROUND MID CALIFORNIA MOST LIKELY ASSOC
WITH NEXT WAVE THAT WILL BE ROUNDING BASE OF TROF TONIGHT AND LEAD
COLORADO LOW MOVING OUT OF PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM CLOSES
OFF OVER THE STATE. WILL HAVE A SHORT BREAK FROM PCPN TODAY WITH
SNOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN UPSLOPE REGIME OF WESTERN CWA AND HIGH
PLAINS THIS EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE MAJOR FCST CHALLENGE FOR THIS MORNING. FEEL WATCH
NOT A BAD IDEA WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...THOUGH LEANING TOWARD
GFS SOLN...AND QPF AND WWD PRODUCTS LEANING TOWARD SOME LOW END
WARNING CRITERIA NUMBERS. WILL HAVE GOOD LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN CWA
WHICH WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC LOCATION NW OF SFC
LOW...WITH UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW COMBINING WITH UPGLIDE. ADDITIONAL LIFT
LOOKS TO COME FROM MID LEVEL FRONTO ZONE WHICH WILL BE ORIENTED
INTIALLY W-E ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...THEN TILT SW-NE AS MAIN LOW
EJECTS AND BECOMES NEG TILTED. X-SECTIONS SHOW FRONTO BAND THROUGH
DENDRITIC LAYER TO AID IN GOOD SNOWFALL PRODUCTION. AID FROM CSI
LOOKS MINIMAL AS DRY PUNCH LOOKS TO BE EAST OF CWA...HOWEVER THERE
IS SOME WEAK EPV AND LARGE SPREAD OF THETA FIELDS WOULD INDICATE
SOME INSTABILITY. MOISTURE LOOKS OK...BUT MOISTURE TRANS VECT ON
290K SFC ARE STRONGEST TO THE EAST...THROUGH WRAP AROUND WCB LOOKS
TO BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO EASTERN CWA DURING SECOND HALF OF EVENT.
WILL GO FOR 4-7 INCHES ACROSS WATCH AREA...WITH 2-4 SOUTH. WENT NEAR
MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS NEXT 48 HRS. ASSUMED SNOWFALL UP NORTH AND
LOWERED TEMPS THERE FOR SNOWPACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH BY MIDWEEK SO WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH PANHANDLE...SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
FROM 06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY.

&&

13

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