Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 080144
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
841 PM CDT WED JUN 7 2006

NEC041-111-080215-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-060608T0215Z/
CUSTER NE-LINCOLN NE-
841 PM CDT WED JUN 7 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR LINCOLN AND SOUTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTIES...

AT 838 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HIGHWAY 40 MILE MARKER 20 TO
9 MILES WEST OF HIGHWAY 47 MILE MARKER 80...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ARNOLD TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ARNOLD...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CALLAWAY BY 845 PM CDT...
  HIGHWAY 23 MILE MARKER 70 AND HIGHWAY 47 MILE MARKER 80 BY 850 PM
  CDT...
  HIGHWAY 83 MILE MARKER 60 BY 855 PM CDT...
  HIGHWAY 40 MILE MARKER 30...HIGHWAY 30 MILE MARKER 200...WELLFLEET
  AND BRADY BY 905 PM CDT...
  INTERSTATE 80 MILE MARKER 200 BY 910 PM CDT...
  8 MILES WEST OF HIGHWAY 21 MILE MARKER 50 BY 915 PM CDT...

WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF ANY RAIN OR 
LIGHTNING. A LINE OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH WAS 
LOCATED FROM NEAR SUTHERLAND TO BRADY AROUND 840 PM...MOVING SOUTH 
AROUND 20 MPH. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING 
COVER. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY 
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4142 9999 4135 10025 4127 10051 4102 10046
      4109 10083 4121 10120 4072 10121 4072 10023
      4105 10023 4106 9975

$$

MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
315 PM CDT WED JUN 7 2006

...RECORD HEAT THURSDAY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD REMAIN THE FORECAST FOCUS...

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
HOT AFTERNOON IN THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES. NAM AND NAM/WRF FROM YESTERDAY HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB WITH
LOCATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION. WILL FOLLOW THE NAM SOLUTION OF
WX/POPS TONIGHT INTO THUR A.M. THE GFS HAS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BY
00Z THIS EVENING INVO SERN WY/NC CO WHICH IN TURN AFFECTS QPFS INTO
WRN NEBR TONIGHT WHICH IVE DEEMED UNRELIABLE. WHILE ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST ENHANCED BY EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AT LEAST
ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST IN SERN WY/WERN CO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PER CORFIDI
VECTORS. H85 LLVL JET TO 30S KTS WILL AID. THUS...FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
HWY 2...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 20KTS WILL MAKE ANY STORMS SHORT
LIVED.

RECORD BREAKING HEAT SET FOR THURSDAY. CURRENT RECORDS ARE BBW
100...VTN 102...LBF 100...AND IML 104. RECORDS SHOULD BE BROKEN AND
LBF AND IML WHILE BBW AND VTN FALL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT. FAVOR THE
NAM SFC LOW POSITION IN SWRN CHERRY COUNTY AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS
POSITION NEAR IML. H85 TEMPS SOAR TO 32-33C ...ALONG WITH 1000-500
MB THICKNESS VALUES GOING ABOVE 586DM. THESE VALUES SUPPORT RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS GRID FCST EXCEPT TO
WARM THE ERN ZONES A FEW DEGREES.

UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME THURSDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WHERE TEMPS TO GO ABOVE CONVECTIVE TEMP. WILL KEEP
POPS LOW AT 20 PERCENT WITH H7 TEMPS FROM 14 TO 16C AND AS SOME OF
PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING GROUND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO REMAIN VERY LIMITED.

COOLER TEMPS BROUGHT IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY...HOWEVER ACROSS
THE SERN CWFA...DEEP MIXING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING COULD SURGE
TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S. HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES
FROM WARMER MAN 2M TEMP AND MET GUIDANCE FOR CONSISTENCY
PURPOSES...BUT SHOULD CONSIDER RAISING THEM UP NEXT FORECAST CYCLE
IF LOOKS THE SAME AS 12Z RUN SHOWED. WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION
NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

BY SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING IN NERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NRN MINN IN THE UPPER 70S. HAVE GOING UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 EXTREME SOUTHWEST. PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...ECMWF HAS UPPER RIDGE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
GFS AND ALSO HAS SFC FRONT FURTHER NORTH SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP SW IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY (SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY) WHILE THE NORTHEAST WOULD MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S.
WHILE HIGHS SHOULD BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...
PRECIP CHCS LOOK MUCH BETTER THAN IN RECENT DAYS AND SHOULD BE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AT 30 TO 40 PERCENT EACH NIGHT (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT). WILL GO WITH AT LEAST 20 POPS IN THE GRIDS AND
REVISE UP IF NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT DESERT SW AIRMASS...SFC LOW IN VCNTY OF WESTERN
SANDHILLS...POSSIBLY LOW PCPN LATE AFTERNOON TSRA...AND CURING FUELS
WILL LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON THURSDAY AND RFW HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BELIEVE GFS MAY
BE TOO POLLUTED WITH FEEDBACK ISSUES AND HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON
NAM12 FOR PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW ACROSS WESTERN CWA TOMORROW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A W/SW SFC FLOW INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN FIRE ZONES WITH
RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE
100-105 RANGE. WINDS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH CRITERIA BECAUSE
OF LOCATION OF SFC LOW...HOWEVER WITH D3 CONDITIONS ON HORIZON FEEL
RFW IS WARRANTED AND HAS BEEN BACKED BY LOCAL FMOS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING PORTIONS OF
ZONES 204...210...206 FROM 16Z THU TO 02Z FRI.

&&

ROBERG/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
413 PM CDT WED JUN 7 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-081200-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
413 PM CDT WED JUN 7 2006 /313 PM MDT WED JUN 7 2006/

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...
MOISTURE AND HEAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
EXTREME INSTABILITY AND THE WIND ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPER CELL DEVELOPMENT.

HEAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST LIKELY TO EXCEED
100 DEGREES AGAIN. RELIEF IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND LIKELY SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
BY SATURDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE 20 DEGREES COOLER OVER NEARLY ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SPRINGER/13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
707 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             HALSEY                  41.90N 100.27W
06/07/2006  E1.00 INCH       BLAINE             NE   PUBLIC

            2 TO 4 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN

&&

BTAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
734 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             33 S VALENTINE          42.40N 100.55W
06/07/2006  E0.88 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

&&

BTAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
750 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             16 NE STAPLETON         41.64N 100.29W
06/07/2006  E0.88 INCH       LOGAN              NE   PUBLIC

&&

BTAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
800 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     16 NE STAPLETON         41.64N 100.29W
06/07/2006  E60 MPH          LOGAN              NE   PUBLIC

&&

BTAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
820 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     STAPLETON               41.48N 100.51W
06/07/2006  E60.00 MPH       LOGAN              NE   PUBLIC

            DEBRIS SEEN BLOWING OFF ROOFS

&&

BTAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
822 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     DUNNING                 41.83N 100.10W
06/07/2006  E60 MPH          BLAINE             NE   PUBLIC

&&

BTAYLOR