Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
341 AM CDT MON JUN 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING WITH FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY POPS AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NEB
PANHANDLE ATTM PUSHING EAST AT 41 KNOTS AND WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z. CONVECTION MAINTAINING WITH BOUNDARY THAT DRIFTED
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE LNX RADAR AT MIDNIGHT TO GIVE ADDITIONAL LIFT
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST INTO BROWN...BLAINE AND KEYA PAHA
COUNTIES BY 4 AM. THEN SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTENSIFING WHILE MOVING EAST WITH RED WILLOW
PROFILER SHOWING SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 35 KNOTS IN LOWEST GATES
INCREASING THE INFO TO STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

MODELS CLOSE TODAY IN PUSHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTHEAST AND
EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEB BY 00Z. THE H85
DEWPOINTS TO 14 DEG C PLUS WEDGES NORTH TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE
THROUGH CENTRAL NEB AS STRONGER WAVE MOVES EAST BY 18Z. THEN BOUNDARY
TO REMAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY IN AREAS EAST
OF 83 THIS AFTERNOON IN DEFORMATION ZONE. MODERATE RISK AREA CLIPS
EASTERN ZONES WITH IMPACT OF CURRENT CONVECTION TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTH CENTRAL AS MCS FORMING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE MOVES
SOUTHEAST. LAPS DATA SUGGESTS THE SOUTHWEST MAY BE BETTER CAPPED WITH
CONVECTION TO AT LEAST WEAKEN WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST...TIME WILL
TELL.

FOR TODAY THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR VTN TO IML BY 18Z THEN ANW
TO MCK AT 00Z. AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL BE PRIMED AS STRONG
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. H85 DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TEENS
...K INDICES IN THE MID 30S...AND PW RATIOS AT OR ABOVE AN INCH
BRINGS TO LIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO INTO THE NCNTRL
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR TO
FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT CLEARING EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST MAY KEEP SOME CLOUD
COVERAGE OVER.

THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THEN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPSLOPE
FLOW AND H85 JETLET TO 40 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE WEST AS A STRONG WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. BY MIDWEEK THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST AND RAISED TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME DOMINATE AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS. FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN SHOWN.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434 FOR
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA..

&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
349 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-052100-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
349 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2006 /249 PM MDT SUN JUN 4 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. GENERALLY
THE THUNDERSTORM WILL NOT BE SEVERE...HOWEVER ISOLATED AREAS OF
LARGE HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LATE MONDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND
PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
LINE FROM OGALLALA TO AINSWORTH. ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE. THE EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE IS UNCERTAIN BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE SLIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MASEK