Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 220153
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
851 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

NEC029-085-220215-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-060522T0215Z/
HAYES NE-CHASE NE-
851 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM
CDT(815 PM MDT) FOR NORTHEASTERN CHASE AND HAYES COUNTIES...

AT 746 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES WEST OF HIGHWAY 25
MILE MARKER 50 TO 20 MILES WEST OF HAYES CENTER...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF IMPERIAL TO 13 MILES EAST OF
IMPERIAL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HIGHWAY 25 MILE MARKER 50...8 MILES WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 MILE MARKER
  40 AND 9 MILES WEST OF HAYES CENTER BY 915 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED IN CHASE COUNTY 
WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE 
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4068 10149 4042 10147 4041 10087 4068 10090

$$

JMC

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 220205
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
903 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

NEC029-085-220213-
/O.CAN.KLBF.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-060522T0215Z/
HAYES NE-CHASE NE-
903 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CHASE AND HAYES
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED 
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN STILL BE 
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

LAT...LON 4068 10149 4042 10147 4041 10087 4068 10090

$$

JMC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
315 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING FORECAST WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVES AND FROM A FRONT PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THIS AFTERNOON BOTH APPEAR TO HAVE FIRED SOME ACTIVITY.  HAVE MADE
ALLOWANCES TO THE GRIDS FOR BOTH THREATS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IS WEAK FOR SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE MERRIMAN AND MCCOOK PROFILERS... WOULD BE NICE TO
SEE IT FROM WY BUT MEDICINE BOW IS OUT OF SERVICE.  CYS VAD WIND
PROFILE AND OTHERS ACROSS THE AREA SHOWING WINDS THROUGH 700 MB
AROUND 10 KNOTS.  DRY AIR AND NEAR INVERTED V BUT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO PRODUCE HIGH WINDS.  HAIL THREAT HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY .75 INCH
HAIL AROUND LARAMIE.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
NEAR LARAMIE OF 12KFT AS THEY ARE HERE BUT WE ARE LOWER IN
ELEVATION.

NEAR TERM TONIGHT THERE ARE ISSUES WITH CONVECTION/COVERAGE/AND
CLOUD COVER.  0Z AND 6Z MODELS SHOWED AN MCS DEVELOPING IN WY AND
CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST...LATEST RUC AND GFS SHOW THE MCS
TRACKING MORE TO THE NORTH OF THAT TRACK.  CONVECTION ALSO SLOWER
THAN MODELS INDICATE SO BACKED MOST POPS TILL AFTER 0Z TONIGHT THEN
PAINTED A LARGE AREA WITH LOW POPS.  CLOUD COVER IS THEN A TRICK AND
THIS HAS AN IMPACT ON MONDAY MORNING LOWS.

MONDAY CLOUD COVER HANGS IN WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEW POINTS AOB
50...HOWEVER A CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO KEEP CONVECTION OUT
UNTIL STORMS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN THE EVENING.  AFTER CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY MORNING...WE COME UP CAPPED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONTINUED DOMINANCE
OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS US.  GFS HAS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING ISSUES.  THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AND RETURNS MID WEEK
BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY.  THE RESULT IS WARMER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH ALLOWS FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  IDENTIFYING THE DAYS TO ADD POPS IS DIFFICULT
AS THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES HAS BEEN VARIED.  MOISTURE
WILL BE ADEQUATE WITH SOUTH WINDS AND PROGGED DEW POINTS AROUND 50.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HIRSCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-221200-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 /244 PM MDT SUN MAY 21 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE WEST
OF LINE FROM VALENTINE TO BROKEN BOW. STRONG HEATING AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...MAY LEAD TO ISOALTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A MERRIMAN TO NORTH
PLATTE LINE. WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH
LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY AND IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK
TO THE EAST. AS IT DOES...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE COLLECTING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FAVORED
AREAS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF(ALL LOWERCASE)

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
701 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             2 W HAMLET              40.38N 101.27W
05/21/2006  E0.75 INCH       HAYES              NE   PUBLIC

&&

CHANNON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
710 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             1 E HAMLET              40.38N 101.22W
05/21/2006  E1.25 INCH       HAYES              NE   PUBLIC

            HAILED FOR 15 MINUTES. QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED.

&&

CHANNON